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Thursday, 27 February 2014

YesBank trading strategy March 2014 - bumper opportunity - 27 Feb 2014

YESBANK

CMP 302.50

It is on the verge of a sharp explosion either way.

So, buy 320 CE and 300 PE. Total cost 16K + Brokerage. 

Extremely big chances of bumper profits.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Stock Ideas Hindalco, TataSteel, Wipro for March 2014 - 27 Feb 2014

Hindalco

Hindalco will expire this series below 100.

Your trade should be on the sell side in this stock.

Strategy would be to sell on rise.

Resistance 102, 104, 108. 

TataSteel

No one can save it.

It has to fall to touch 322.

Stop loss for shorts 381.

Wipro

Wipro is now at its all time high. And looking like a multibagger.

Buying area exists above 566.

CMP 603.05.

Target 700.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Wednesday, 26 February 2014

Nifty March 2014 analysis forecast for 28th Feb 2014 - 27 Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 26 Feb 2014

Guinness world record holder indian operators finally manage to expire Nifty above 6225. We wrote earlier that don't be surprised to see Nifty to expire even at 6250. 

We cannot fight with these operators. So accordingly we need to change strategies. This expiry is lesson for all of us. Believe me , I haven't seen such expiry before. Height of stupidity and height of manipulation. Any acute reader can argue that in any case it was in line with our advance forecast both technical and expiry. We  fore-casted  on 30th Feb 2014 that Nifty will expire this month above 6200, then why such diff in thinking ? 

We can't impose our view on markets and later regret. But facts are facts, both good and bad are in front of you. This has happened earlier as well, that our advance forecast works with ease with god's gift but market field forces us to reconsider our strategy. This is a thin line and best of both worlds needs to be architected upon. 

Things were going as per our TIME forecast till 20th beautifully but we made some mistakes and didn't stick to our own analysis. After 20th Feb it was clear manipulation. So 20th Feb 2014 range should be kept in mind 6129 - 6086. Time will tell how this range works in March series.

But if you are following our blogs you must be enjoying trading markets. We promise more accuracy and more interesting trades in next series.

Mid Cap IT stocks were on fire.  POLARIS, HEXAWARE, ROLTA, EDUCOMP, APTECH all gained handsomely. 

Steel stocks remained in severe stress with TATASTEEL tanked 3% to close at 349. 

In equity segment, FIIs were net buyers again. DII selling was of concern as they didn't sell as expected. They tend to sell heavily at highs, so does this mean more highs are coming ? Entire February 2014 series DIIs selling was highest on 10th Feb when they sold 320 Cr, otherwise on an average they sold hardly 40Cr daily as against 80Cr average in January 2014.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 26-Feb-2014 4047.653536.50511.15
DII 26-Feb-2014 1163.891415.80-251.91

And in derivative segment they sold stock futures yet again with buying continuing in equity segment. This refraining from stock futures buying itself tells the true picture that its a corrective bounce like July 2013 and it is likely to continue in March too. 
Nifty future premium stands at 34 points for March 2014 series. Nice premium is good for longs.


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 26-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
126678
3893.14
82570
2509.42
293658
9038.54
INDEX OPTIONS
416856
12519.86
389456
11651.78
982730
30597.02
STOCK FUTURES
315809
9491.16
326492
9857.83
1019093
30764.82
STOCK OPTIONS
24668
727.39
22810
698.16
6492
138.86



Stock ideas update

LT remained in severe up-trend. ICICIBANK is finding resistance at 1045 levels. 
ITC has taken a U turn and has just hit the stop loss. We mentioned earlier to reconsider your ITC shorts for time being as with market support, it might stop out.
Sugar stocks were ok.

Trade update

Our Nifty short trade was stopped out with loss of 60 points after making a high of 6245. Our stop loss was hit yet again by a thin margin of 5 points and markets closing below our stop loss. Sucking operators. 

Anyway, our profit now stands at -2 Nifty points and -39% Option Gains. 

We will beat these brigade of suckers single handedly in March 2014 series.

Nifty forecast for 28 Feb 2014

Nifty should remain weak and after hitting 6250 spot it should take U turn towards 6177. Still no clear forecast can be seen. Weakness looks more certain, avoid buying.

Advice for traders

Nifty is clearly in uptrend, but some weak-ness is expected. Sell below 6250 with stop loss between 6250 - 6260 for target of 6200 - 6177. 


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Tuesday, 25 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 analysis forecast for 26 Feb 2014 - 25 Feb 2014


Note : Expiry and Forecast blogs are updated.

Nifty analysis for 25 Feb 2014

Today again china markets fell sharply. SHANGHAI has lost more than 3% in 3 days from its highs. Nifty did everything what we expected but with higher levels. It fell sharply and closed flat. But level wise it again did a googly. Manipulation at its best ! Some how 6200 was maintained to change technicals for future time.

Market breadth was bad and minor support came from IT. BankNifty remained sluggish throughout the day. 

Nifty is right at the top of the rising wedge and should now fall from here.

Wipro was the star of the day and zoomed 3% to finish at 14 year high after getting IT and BPO order from UK firm. 

FIIs continue their buying spree in equities. They are selling in stock futures and buying equities.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 25-Feb-2014 2649.66 2226.25423.41
DII 25-Feb-2014 790.521079.64-289.12

And in derivative segment they sold stock futures once again taking their streak to 7th day with 21st Feb 2014 as exception. Index futures continuously saw short covering. Nifty march 2014 series futures OI stand at paltry 9123000. Tomorrow rollover would be seen in big amount which should bring sharp swings.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 25-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
151991
4672.52
118684
3626.18
478237
14564.21
INDEX OPTIONS
537284
15890.77
502599
14785.58
1622396
49906.39
STOCK FUTURES
321905
10048.05
331982
10323.34
1157738
35079.91
STOCK OPTIONS
35157
1064.50
34405
1049.96
72903
2124.58



Stock ideas update

ICICIBANK hurdle remains at 1045, it made high of 1048 and closed in red.
LT remains strong and now moving towards 1154.

ITC marches 3rd day in a row to close at 321.95. It is still in bear area.

RENUKA remained in bull's area, as all sugar stocks are now looking great. Tomorrow is D-Day for RENUKA, if it maintains 21.15 tomorrow, then problems will be over, otherwise few more days of weakness can be observed in it.

Trade update

6200 PE too get stopped out today reducing our profit to -39% Option gains.

Our short position remains intact and if not stopped out tomorrow, we will rollover for march 2014 contracts and increase our downside targets to 6100.

Nifty forecast for 25 Feb 2014

Nifty should remain very volatile as Nifty OI for march 2014 series is very very less.

Nifty should expire above 6200 though marginally, not because of technicals but because of manipulation. 

Without manipulation it would have expired at 6150 - 6100.

Overall nothing can be said, but it should be a range-bound day.

Level wise it should be 6150 - 6215.

Advice for traders

If after showing weakness Nifty looks like forming a base , then huge chances are for 6200+ levels. Try to trade with 6200 CE for some points only. 




Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Nifty weakness for February March 2014 series - Rising wedge chart pattern - 25 Feb 2014



Above is chart for Nifty spot after 25th Feb 2014 closing.

Clearly it is forming a small rising wedge chart pattern.

A rising wedge chart pattern is very bearish.

So we can expect Nifty to fall to 6100 very soon, may be immediately after expiry is over.

Sell any weakness below 6198 with March 2014 series Nifty future.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Monday, 24 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 analysis forecast for 25 Feb 2014 - 24 Feb 2014

Hi,

Note : Expiry is on 26th Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 24 Feb 2014

Nifty did various things as forecasted yesterday in this post 
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-forecast-update-1.html .

But the thing which surprised us was it didn't come below 6133 and after hitting 6192 it didn't fell and operators took their time to keep Nifty floating higher.

We wrote several times about 6192 and today Nifty made an exact high of 6191.85. Now as several things are shaping up in other direction so it looks like Nifty will expire above 6200 as we mentioned on 30th January 2014 itself. 

But based on chart patterns and several things we remained in dilemma that Nifty after crossing 6100 should remain range bound or move higher.  

Our forecast was correct but we remained on safe side. This is a clear case of manipulation, and we have seen earlier many times that manipulation is followed by truth. July 2013 was followed by August 2013.

Todays move was led by banks and capital goods mainly with some support coming from FMCG.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 24-Feb-2014 2379.03 2112.16 266.87
DII 24-Feb-2014 580.59 829.08 -248.49

And in derivative segment they remained net sellers in stock futures after yesterday's small buying. Index futures saw clear short covering. Nifty premium stands at 7 points only which is still shaky. 



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
118143
3569.64
99004
2967.84
440814
13389.57
INDEX OPTIONS
486874
14446.11
475350
13995.75
1595759
48969.35
STOCK FUTURES
374371
11256.62
381558
11424.93
1118963
33724.33
STOCK OPTIONS
41708
1242.16
40943
1243.53
74083
2159.50


Stock ideas update

LT marches ahead with its breakout and is now in severe uptrend, and only sky is the limit. It isn't showing any signs of weakness at all. Use a trailing stop loss and let it run.

ICICIBANK too is going great guns, 1045 is the hurdle, once it gets past that, then it too will run sharply.

Remain cautious with ITC shorts as with market support it might hit your stop loss. 

Trade update

Today we expected weakness and it did come as ASIAN markets were bleeding hard with SHANGHAI falling 3% at one time, but operators had something else in mind. Though our selling area was below 6133, we decided to go short seeing extremely weak asian markets and shaky Indian markets buildup. But our stop loss saved us once again. 

Our 6000 CE too hit stop loss.

Our gains now are only  58 Nifty points and 0% Option gains.

http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-11-14.html

Nifty forecast for 25 Feb 2014

Tomorrow we are expecting Nifty to retest today's low and a flat Nifty closing like we anticipated today. 

Advice for traders

Make sure you sell any weakness below 6192 with 6200 stop loss and buy any dip towards 6133 for 6200+ target with 6100 stop loss.

Expiry day can surprise us towards 6255.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Sunday, 23 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 forecast update 1 - 23 Feb 2014

This is an update for Forecast and Advice for Traders section of 
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-analysis-forecast_23.html .


Nifty forecast for 24 Feb 2014

Nifty is likely to make a sharp dip from its open price and bounce back sharply. This bounce if doesn't come tomorrow then on 25th Feb 2014 it will come surely towards open price of 24 Feb 2014. This can be summarized as range-bound on 24 - 25 Feb 2014.

Personally we are expecting a flat closing with Nifty remaining unstable both at high and low.

Advice for traders

Sell any open for target of 6100, 6080. Sell only below 6133.
Buy any decline towards 6100, 6080 for target of 6133.

Traders can try both or try buying the decline.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Nifty February 2014 analysis forecast for 24 Feb 2014 - 23 Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 21 Feb 2014

Nifty after falling on 20th Feb rose sharply to make double top at 6150. Buying came in with all the sectors participating. This one day fall, and other day rising is very annoying. But we are not market makers, we have to follow the trend and use our knowledge to survive.

We have a gut feeling that Nifty should try to hit 6192 level as we fore-casted in our expiry blog on 30th January 2014 itself that Feb 2014 series will expire above 6200. Now 6200 expiry does not look practical at all, so we think that operators will try to make a high of 6192 without giving a closing and as mentioned earlier that Nifty should react sharply from there.

We are holding our view of 6083 expiry based on various parameters.

Almost always after playing googly markets in next series gives clear cut good move, so March - April looks promising for money printing. 

Equity buying looked impressive but not quite up to the mark.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 21-Feb-2014 2371.43 1768.02 603.41
DII 21-Feb-2014 582.18 963.73 -381.55

And in derivative segment FIIs bought index futures worth 230 Cr and stock futures worth 35 Cr only.  Nifty premium stands at 8 points only. So up move of 21st Feb can be described as mere testing high of 19th Feb 2014 forming a double top at 6150 hitting our stop loss once again.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES 64693
1934.58
57412
1704.06
411071
12420.97
INDEX OPTIONS
418135
12479.81
412749
12253.24
1619929
49492.07
STOCK FUTURES
188025
5723.62
187697
5688.39
1069620
31997.15
STOCK OPTIONS
35470
1063.40
38192
1147.96
71254
2087.26


Stock ideas update

Keep holding RENUKA. LT, ICICIBANK rose further up and are now and gave yet another chance to exit. LT has given a short term breakout, so exercise caution, as breakouts fall more often than not. 
ITC rose 1.8% to close at 317.60.

Trade update

Our short trade failed again with loss of 40 points in Nifty future trade and 6100 PE trade failed hitting stop loss and our gains now stand at 76 Nifty points and 23% Options gains.

Nifty forecast for 24 Feb 2014

Nifty should remain weak overall. No clear forecast can be seen.

Advice for traders
Global cues un-supportive for any upmove. Any Asian news might bring some positivity. Technical wise it is weak overall. In expiry weak global cues affect only opening. So, trade should be on the sell side.

Advice would be to focus on 6200 PE Feb 2014 series. Just in case if Nifty comes near 6192 , it should fall back towards 6100. So sell any gap-up or any rise higher than 6155.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Thursday, 20 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 series analysis forecast for 21st Feb 2014 - 20 Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 19 Feb 2014

Nifty according to our time forecast changed course giving surprise to many. It opened below yesterday's trading range. We were expecting 6192 but it decided to change course from 6158 after hitting our stop loss.


According to our time forecast we are now into our third and last time band which says it should be now both BUYING + SELLING. But as trend is down so we will focus on selling only. 

http://nifty-forecast.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-forecast-for-january-2014.html

BankNifty tanked badly by a whopping -181 points. Selling was observed all round the sectors including IT so there was hardly any buying support seen.

Nifty below 6152, 6137 will be in bear grip and downside will be fully open upto 6000, 5985. 


A gap-down below 6075 tomorrow will bring un-precedented selling.


Nifty future premium finished at 16 points signalling some short covering seen as OI reduced further and now is at lowest of this series at 14874050.


Nifty is at higher levels so DII remained net sellers. They dont miss any chance to sell at higher levels.


FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 20-Feb-2014 2382.18 2175.72 206.46
DII20-Feb-2014 457.40 1058.11-600.71

And in derivative segment FIIs sold stock futures yet again taking their selling spree to 4th day. They were seen selling Nifty futures too in fairly good amount. 



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
42288
1254.50
52724
1573.07
395822
11887.61
INDEX OPTIONS
415653
12322.92
415954
12306.57
1603543
48482.59
STOCK FUTURES
62825
1873.90
75383
2198.76
1051652
31197.38
STOCK OPTIONS
38338
1145.11
39188
1171.55
70130
2032.73


Stock ideas update

ITC fell 1.5% to close at 311.85.

It has now further deepened into bear grip and is now ripe for a free fall from here on. 
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/02/itc-stock-technical-analysis-18-feb-2014.html

ICICIBANK opened gap down and closed 2% lower immediately after 19th Feb is over.


RENUKA continued its upward journey and closed 3.5% higher at 22.4.

http://nifty-multibagger-stocks.tracknifty.com/2014/01/multibagger-call-buy-renuka-19-january.html

Trade update

Thankfully our 6000 CE sell call didn't hit stop loss and closed at 117.75 and now we are in running profit of around 25%.

http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-11-18.html

We took fresh positions today after seeing the weakness and our time forecast : 


http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-13-20.html


http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-12-20.html


So far our strategy to sell near 6200 and buy near 6000 has worked great.
http://nifty-strategy.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-strategy-for-february-2014-series.html


Nifty forecast for 20 Feb 2014

Nifty is clearly weak, but a break below 6075 is needed for clear fall. Chances are high for a gap down below 6075 and further fall.


Advice for traders

If Nifty opens gap down or break 6075, then sell for target of 6050, 6030. Though after break of 6075 it can even fall to 6000 or below. But that might be a bit ex-aggregated. Use stop loss of 6099 for your shorts for intraday.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com