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Thursday, 13 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 analysis forecast for 14 Feb 2014 - 13 Feb 2014


Nifty analysis for 13 Feb 2014

Nifty despite some positive ground tanked badly with fall coming by all round selling in all sectors. This fall came as a bit surprise after our time forecast which says from 13th - 19th Feb 2014 it should be bullish.  

Despite this fall, in equity FIIs were net buyers (399Cr) more than DIIs selling(-292Cr). FIIs continued their stock future buying spree with 160Cr more futures covered. This is their 6th continuous day when they have bought stock futures. Nifty futures saw another addition of short positions as OI now increased to 1,66,56,500 and premium now remaining only 4 points.

In between sharp bounce which ran for two days 11th and 12th all round the globe brought this slight mis-placement. We mentioned several times that from 5th - 12th market should make opposite U with levels of 5th and 12th should be near same. And it exactly happened although 2 days after without any significant upside. But that is market, our broad view should be on right side and now traders / investors must be appreciating our sell call for 19th Feb 2014 :

We are sticking to our view that by 19th Feb Nifty should recover smartly.

Trade update

Today as discussed in yesterday's report we went for longs with stop loss.

But our stop loss eventually triggered. And now we are left with 100 Nifty points and 70% options gains. We trade Options only when we are 100% sure of our view. We will try to take next trade on / near 19th Feb. Keep a close eye on our blogs. Nifty range is increasing and it will increase as we start moving towards expiry.

Nifty outlook / forecast for 13th Feb 2014

Tomorrow Nifty is expected to remain range-bound at lower levels. Levels should be 6028 - 5963 - 5932.

Advice for traders

If you are holding longs, then tomorrow you can add more to your longs near days low and / or buy 6000/6100 calls.

If you are holding shorts, exit 50% position near days low. With nifty futures adding more OI and slowly running into discount should bring more fall.

Intraday traders can go for rangebound trading with levels mentioned above.

Anjum S Khan