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Sunday, 23 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 analysis forecast for 24 Feb 2014 - 23 Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 21 Feb 2014

Nifty after falling on 20th Feb rose sharply to make double top at 6150. Buying came in with all the sectors participating. This one day fall, and other day rising is very annoying. But we are not market makers, we have to follow the trend and use our knowledge to survive.

We have a gut feeling that Nifty should try to hit 6192 level as we fore-casted in our expiry blog on 30th January 2014 itself that Feb 2014 series will expire above 6200. Now 6200 expiry does not look practical at all, so we think that operators will try to make a high of 6192 without giving a closing and as mentioned earlier that Nifty should react sharply from there.

We are holding our view of 6083 expiry based on various parameters.

Almost always after playing googly markets in next series gives clear cut good move, so March - April looks promising for money printing. 

Equity buying looked impressive but not quite up to the mark.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 21-Feb-2014 2371.43 1768.02 603.41
DII 21-Feb-2014 582.18 963.73 -381.55

And in derivative segment FIIs bought index futures worth 230 Cr and stock futures worth 35 Cr only.  Nifty premium stands at 8 points only. So up move of 21st Feb can be described as mere testing high of 19th Feb 2014 forming a double top at 6150 hitting our stop loss once again.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 21-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES 64693
1934.58
57412
1704.06
411071
12420.97
INDEX OPTIONS
418135
12479.81
412749
12253.24
1619929
49492.07
STOCK FUTURES
188025
5723.62
187697
5688.39
1069620
31997.15
STOCK OPTIONS
35470
1063.40
38192
1147.96
71254
2087.26


Stock ideas update

Keep holding RENUKA. LT, ICICIBANK rose further up and are now and gave yet another chance to exit. LT has given a short term breakout, so exercise caution, as breakouts fall more often than not. 
ITC rose 1.8% to close at 317.60.

Trade update

Our short trade failed again with loss of 40 points in Nifty future trade and 6100 PE trade failed hitting stop loss and our gains now stand at 76 Nifty points and 23% Options gains.

Nifty forecast for 24 Feb 2014

Nifty should remain weak overall. No clear forecast can be seen.

Advice for traders
Global cues un-supportive for any upmove. Any Asian news might bring some positivity. Technical wise it is weak overall. In expiry weak global cues affect only opening. So, trade should be on the sell side.

Advice would be to focus on 6200 PE Feb 2014 series. Just in case if Nifty comes near 6192 , it should fall back towards 6100. So sell any gap-up or any rise higher than 6155.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com