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Monday, 24 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 analysis forecast for 25 Feb 2014 - 24 Feb 2014

Hi,

Note : Expiry is on 26th Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 24 Feb 2014

Nifty did various things as forecasted yesterday in this post 
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-forecast-update-1.html .

But the thing which surprised us was it didn't come below 6133 and after hitting 6192 it didn't fell and operators took their time to keep Nifty floating higher.

We wrote several times about 6192 and today Nifty made an exact high of 6191.85. Now as several things are shaping up in other direction so it looks like Nifty will expire above 6200 as we mentioned on 30th January 2014 itself. 

But based on chart patterns and several things we remained in dilemma that Nifty after crossing 6100 should remain range bound or move higher.  

Our forecast was correct but we remained on safe side. This is a clear case of manipulation, and we have seen earlier many times that manipulation is followed by truth. July 2013 was followed by August 2013.

Todays move was led by banks and capital goods mainly with some support coming from FMCG.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 24-Feb-2014 2379.03 2112.16 266.87
DII 24-Feb-2014 580.59 829.08 -248.49

And in derivative segment they remained net sellers in stock futures after yesterday's small buying. Index futures saw clear short covering. Nifty premium stands at 7 points only which is still shaky. 



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
118143
3569.64
99004
2967.84
440814
13389.57
INDEX OPTIONS
486874
14446.11
475350
13995.75
1595759
48969.35
STOCK FUTURES
374371
11256.62
381558
11424.93
1118963
33724.33
STOCK OPTIONS
41708
1242.16
40943
1243.53
74083
2159.50


Stock ideas update

LT marches ahead with its breakout and is now in severe uptrend, and only sky is the limit. It isn't showing any signs of weakness at all. Use a trailing stop loss and let it run.

ICICIBANK too is going great guns, 1045 is the hurdle, once it gets past that, then it too will run sharply.

Remain cautious with ITC shorts as with market support it might hit your stop loss. 

Trade update

Today we expected weakness and it did come as ASIAN markets were bleeding hard with SHANGHAI falling 3% at one time, but operators had something else in mind. Though our selling area was below 6133, we decided to go short seeing extremely weak asian markets and shaky Indian markets buildup. But our stop loss saved us once again. 

Our 6000 CE too hit stop loss.

Our gains now are only  58 Nifty points and 0% Option gains.

http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-11-14.html

Nifty forecast for 25 Feb 2014

Tomorrow we are expecting Nifty to retest today's low and a flat Nifty closing like we anticipated today. 

Advice for traders

Make sure you sell any weakness below 6192 with 6200 stop loss and buy any dip towards 6133 for 6200+ target with 6100 stop loss.

Expiry day can surprise us towards 6255.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com