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Tuesday, 25 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 analysis forecast for 26 Feb 2014 - 25 Feb 2014


Note : Expiry and Forecast blogs are updated.

Nifty analysis for 25 Feb 2014

Today again china markets fell sharply. SHANGHAI has lost more than 3% in 3 days from its highs. Nifty did everything what we expected but with higher levels. It fell sharply and closed flat. But level wise it again did a googly. Manipulation at its best ! Some how 6200 was maintained to change technicals for future time.

Market breadth was bad and minor support came from IT. BankNifty remained sluggish throughout the day. 

Nifty is right at the top of the rising wedge and should now fall from here.

Wipro was the star of the day and zoomed 3% to finish at 14 year high after getting IT and BPO order from UK firm. 

FIIs continue their buying spree in equities. They are selling in stock futures and buying equities.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 25-Feb-2014 2649.66 2226.25423.41
DII 25-Feb-2014 790.521079.64-289.12

And in derivative segment they sold stock futures once again taking their streak to 7th day with 21st Feb 2014 as exception. Index futures continuously saw short covering. Nifty march 2014 series futures OI stand at paltry 9123000. Tomorrow rollover would be seen in big amount which should bring sharp swings.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 25-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
151991
4672.52
118684
3626.18
478237
14564.21
INDEX OPTIONS
537284
15890.77
502599
14785.58
1622396
49906.39
STOCK FUTURES
321905
10048.05
331982
10323.34
1157738
35079.91
STOCK OPTIONS
35157
1064.50
34405
1049.96
72903
2124.58



Stock ideas update

ICICIBANK hurdle remains at 1045, it made high of 1048 and closed in red.
LT remains strong and now moving towards 1154.

ITC marches 3rd day in a row to close at 321.95. It is still in bear area.

RENUKA remained in bull's area, as all sugar stocks are now looking great. Tomorrow is D-Day for RENUKA, if it maintains 21.15 tomorrow, then problems will be over, otherwise few more days of weakness can be observed in it.

Trade update

6200 PE too get stopped out today reducing our profit to -39% Option gains.

Our short position remains intact and if not stopped out tomorrow, we will rollover for march 2014 contracts and increase our downside targets to 6100.

Nifty forecast for 25 Feb 2014

Nifty should remain very volatile as Nifty OI for march 2014 series is very very less.

Nifty should expire above 6200 though marginally, not because of technicals but because of manipulation. 

Without manipulation it would have expired at 6150 - 6100.

Overall nothing can be said, but it should be a range-bound day.

Level wise it should be 6150 - 6215.

Advice for traders

If after showing weakness Nifty looks like forming a base , then huge chances are for 6200+ levels. Try to trade with 6200 CE for some points only. 




Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com