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Thursday, 20 February 2014

Nifty February 2014 series analysis forecast for 21st Feb 2014 - 20 Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 19 Feb 2014

Nifty according to our time forecast changed course giving surprise to many. It opened below yesterday's trading range. We were expecting 6192 but it decided to change course from 6158 after hitting our stop loss.


According to our time forecast we are now into our third and last time band which says it should be now both BUYING + SELLING. But as trend is down so we will focus on selling only. 

http://nifty-forecast.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-forecast-for-january-2014.html

BankNifty tanked badly by a whopping -181 points. Selling was observed all round the sectors including IT so there was hardly any buying support seen.

Nifty below 6152, 6137 will be in bear grip and downside will be fully open upto 6000, 5985. 


A gap-down below 6075 tomorrow will bring un-precedented selling.


Nifty future premium finished at 16 points signalling some short covering seen as OI reduced further and now is at lowest of this series at 14874050.


Nifty is at higher levels so DII remained net sellers. They dont miss any chance to sell at higher levels.


FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 20-Feb-2014 2382.18 2175.72 206.46
DII20-Feb-2014 457.40 1058.11-600.71

And in derivative segment FIIs sold stock futures yet again taking their selling spree to 4th day. They were seen selling Nifty futures too in fairly good amount. 



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 20-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
42288
1254.50
52724
1573.07
395822
11887.61
INDEX OPTIONS
415653
12322.92
415954
12306.57
1603543
48482.59
STOCK FUTURES
62825
1873.90
75383
2198.76
1051652
31197.38
STOCK OPTIONS
38338
1145.11
39188
1171.55
70130
2032.73


Stock ideas update

ITC fell 1.5% to close at 311.85.

It has now further deepened into bear grip and is now ripe for a free fall from here on. 
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/02/itc-stock-technical-analysis-18-feb-2014.html

ICICIBANK opened gap down and closed 2% lower immediately after 19th Feb is over.


RENUKA continued its upward journey and closed 3.5% higher at 22.4.

http://nifty-multibagger-stocks.tracknifty.com/2014/01/multibagger-call-buy-renuka-19-january.html

Trade update

Thankfully our 6000 CE sell call didn't hit stop loss and closed at 117.75 and now we are in running profit of around 25%.

http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-11-18.html

We took fresh positions today after seeing the weakness and our time forecast : 


http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-13-20.html


http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-february-2014-series-trade-12-20.html


So far our strategy to sell near 6200 and buy near 6000 has worked great.
http://nifty-strategy.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-strategy-for-february-2014-series.html


Nifty forecast for 20 Feb 2014

Nifty is clearly weak, but a break below 6075 is needed for clear fall. Chances are high for a gap down below 6075 and further fall.


Advice for traders

If Nifty opens gap down or break 6075, then sell for target of 6050, 6030. Though after break of 6075 it can even fall to 6000 or below. But that might be a bit ex-aggregated. Use stop loss of 6099 for your shorts for intraday.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com