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Wednesday, 26 February 2014

Nifty March 2014 analysis forecast for 28th Feb 2014 - 27 Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 26 Feb 2014

Guinness world record holder indian operators finally manage to expire Nifty above 6225. We wrote earlier that don't be surprised to see Nifty to expire even at 6250. 

We cannot fight with these operators. So accordingly we need to change strategies. This expiry is lesson for all of us. Believe me , I haven't seen such expiry before. Height of stupidity and height of manipulation. Any acute reader can argue that in any case it was in line with our advance forecast both technical and expiry. We  fore-casted  on 30th Feb 2014 that Nifty will expire this month above 6200, then why such diff in thinking ? 

We can't impose our view on markets and later regret. But facts are facts, both good and bad are in front of you. This has happened earlier as well, that our advance forecast works with ease with god's gift but market field forces us to reconsider our strategy. This is a thin line and best of both worlds needs to be architected upon. 

Things were going as per our TIME forecast till 20th beautifully but we made some mistakes and didn't stick to our own analysis. After 20th Feb it was clear manipulation. So 20th Feb 2014 range should be kept in mind 6129 - 6086. Time will tell how this range works in March series.

But if you are following our blogs you must be enjoying trading markets. We promise more accuracy and more interesting trades in next series.

Mid Cap IT stocks were on fire.  POLARIS, HEXAWARE, ROLTA, EDUCOMP, APTECH all gained handsomely. 

Steel stocks remained in severe stress with TATASTEEL tanked 3% to close at 349. 

In equity segment, FIIs were net buyers again. DII selling was of concern as they didn't sell as expected. They tend to sell heavily at highs, so does this mean more highs are coming ? Entire February 2014 series DIIs selling was highest on 10th Feb when they sold 320 Cr, otherwise on an average they sold hardly 40Cr daily as against 80Cr average in January 2014.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 26-Feb-2014 4047.653536.50511.15
DII 26-Feb-2014 1163.891415.80-251.91

And in derivative segment they sold stock futures yet again with buying continuing in equity segment. This refraining from stock futures buying itself tells the true picture that its a corrective bounce like July 2013 and it is likely to continue in March too. 
Nifty future premium stands at 34 points for March 2014 series. Nice premium is good for longs.


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 26-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
126678
3893.14
82570
2509.42
293658
9038.54
INDEX OPTIONS
416856
12519.86
389456
11651.78
982730
30597.02
STOCK FUTURES
315809
9491.16
326492
9857.83
1019093
30764.82
STOCK OPTIONS
24668
727.39
22810
698.16
6492
138.86



Stock ideas update

LT remained in severe up-trend. ICICIBANK is finding resistance at 1045 levels. 
ITC has taken a U turn and has just hit the stop loss. We mentioned earlier to reconsider your ITC shorts for time being as with market support, it might stop out.
Sugar stocks were ok.

Trade update

Our Nifty short trade was stopped out with loss of 60 points after making a high of 6245. Our stop loss was hit yet again by a thin margin of 5 points and markets closing below our stop loss. Sucking operators. 

Anyway, our profit now stands at -2 Nifty points and -39% Option Gains. 

We will beat these brigade of suckers single handedly in March 2014 series.

Nifty forecast for 28 Feb 2014

Nifty should remain weak and after hitting 6250 spot it should take U turn towards 6177. Still no clear forecast can be seen. Weakness looks more certain, avoid buying.

Advice for traders

Nifty is clearly in uptrend, but some weak-ness is expected. Sell below 6250 with stop loss between 6250 - 6260 for target of 6200 - 6177. 


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com