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Monday, 31 March 2014

Nifty April 2014 series analysis forecast for 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 31 Mar 2014

Nifty opened with gap up and remained weak throughout the day as was fore-casted in our advice to traders section in previous report. Metal shares were hero of the day with Hindalco surpassing all expectations closing at 141.75 with a gain of 8.3%. Realty index was a near second registering gain of 2.86%. BankNifty closed flat and pressure on Nifty was due to FMCG stocks. ITC closed -1.6%. Technically it has formed a temporary top at 365. So some sideways movement is very likely. 

Highlight of the day was VIX which closed a massive 16% up at 21. Now markets have entered danger zone and big swings are coming in this series.

FII : DII ratio narrowed sharply in contrast to last day's data when FIIs bought 1362Cr against DII selling -208Cr. DIIs are still selling. They might start buying after sharp dip.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 31-Mar-2014 4248.843305.98942.86
DII 31-Mar-2014 1358.081969.3-611.22


At derivative front FIIs were net sellers in all segments except stock futures. Nifty future remains stagnant at 35 points.

FII April 2014 series turnover so far (Cr)
INDEX FUTURES 129.11
INDEX OPTIONS 1015.47
STOCK FUTURES 344.36
STOCK OPTIONS 13.79


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 31-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
45064
1512.68
50400
1689.82
387783
12993.10
INDEX OPTIONS
256572
8380.09
256298
8391.33
1216162
40715.68
STOCK FUTURES
104588
3670.71
100354
3591.06
1058448
36193.48
STOCK OPTIONS
41985
1422.64
43853
1483.67
29485
1030.67

Stock ideas update

Polaris, TataSteel buying recommendation is posted today.
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/03/stock-ideas-polaris-tatasteel-31-march.html

Trade update

UNITECH 17.5 CE was purchased today, 
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nse-april-2014-series-trade-1-31-mar.html

Nifty forecast for 1April 2014

Nifty is likely to remain weak as we are now in high volatility time band.
http://nifty-forecast.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-time-and-technical-forecast-for.html

Advice for traders

If traders would have followed yesterday's advice, they would have made good money. Nifty after gap up opening went down to make low of 6662. 
If Nifty remains weak in first session, wait for closing hour, and then take long position. As there are chances of a red closing.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Stock ideas - Polaris, TataSteel - 31 March 2014


Polaris analysis forecast for April 2014

Polaris is consolidating at top end, setting perfect scenario for next leg up. This sideways movement can be 4th wave or continuation of 3rd wave towards 210+. Buy it with stop loss of 182.


Polaris consolidating at top end

TataSteel analysis forecast for April 2014

TataSteel is in uptrend now and with metal shares gaining momentum day by day, it should hit 420 very soon.
Buy it with stop loss of 380.
Buying area exists only above 380 strictly.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Saturday, 29 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 31 March 2014 - 28 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 31 Mar 2014

Nifty continues its upside momentum in the new series too. Buying was seen across the board but major buying was seen in PSU Banks and Midcaps. F&O stocks which haven't participated much in March 2014 rally are likely to shine in this series.

BANKNIFTY continued its north-ward journey towards projected target of 13400. 13200-13400 will see BANKNIFTY topping out.

JPASSOCIAT, HDIL, IFCI, VIJAYABANK, ANDHRABANK, DENABANK were few favorites which all moved towards north nicely. 

But highlight of the day was INR which closed at 59.850 in international markets. This is a very healthy sign for BULLS until elections.

But there were certain worrying signs too like no major base shifting took place at higher levels and good amount of selling in Nifty futures was seen. This could be long unwinding rather than short built-up.

Difference between FII and DII is clearly towards FIIs. DII selling is no match against FII buying, so clearly bulls are favorite now until May 2014 elections.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 28-Mar-2014 4323.82960.931362.87
DII 28-Mar-2014 1360.211568.55-208.34

In derivative segment FIIs started with buying stock futures after continuous selling in March 2014 series. Both Index and Stock futures saw nice amount of buying. Nifty futures premium reduced drastically overnight from around 60 to 30. So, there should be good amount of long unwinding along with built up of long positions too in Nifty futures.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
46693
1558.66
37638
1252.42
370865
12404.87
INDEX OPTIONS
272715
8947.28
242748
7920.57
1155446
38634.02
STOCK FUTURES
111167
3883.57
103063
3618.86
1056398
35899.01
STOCK OPTIONS
34852
1126.29
32806
1051.47
19447
682.91

Stock ideas update

No ideas to track

Trade update

No trades to track

Nifty forecast for 31 Mar 2014

There should be selling pressure at higher levels dragging Nifty towards 6650.

Advice for traders

If you are a Nifty future trader, then exit longs at any gap-up on 31st March 2014 and wait for a dip, as our setup is telling that Nifty should take a dip before moving higher. Or, you can focus on accumulation strategy too rather than exiting longs outright.
Stock future traders can keep holding longs as stocks which haven't participated in March 2014 should now participate.

Note All verticals are updated for the new series. Check it out.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Monday, 17 March 2014

INFY (Infosys Technologies) analysis forecast for March - April 2014 - 18 March 2014

Hi,

Infosys has fallen sharply from 3800 to 3300 levels with in a matter of 7 days.

Now there is obvious confusion in investors what to do ? 

We are of the view that INFY will consolidate at current levels and then rise to make new swing high at 4000 by approx 19th April 2014.

Traders are advised to wait for 5 days and see it is consolidating or not. If it does then buy with 10% stop loss.

Note : Education, Forecast blogs are updated.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Sunday, 16 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 18 March 2014 - 14 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 14 Mar 2014


Nifty remained in highest pressure on 13th March 2014 which was the end day for our selling time band as mentioned in our time forecast. Immediately next day on 14th March 2014 it bounced back sharply after global cues pushed it lower towards 6450. Everything happening exactly according to time bands. 

Now we will enjoy favorable winds towards north from 18th March 2014 onwards. Selling pressure was seen in its most feary shape in all markets around the globe except our markets. Now it will be interesting to see if all world markets take U turn as now we will be in buying time band. 

All sectors were down today except PHARMA which is going opposite to broader markets. Realty sector started witnessing buying in mid session and was first sector to see buying. Realty stocks zoomed vertically after early big weakness signalling fireworks on 18th March 2014. BankNifty closed flattish negative. PHARMA, INFRA were biggest gainers gaining 1% each. IT index closed flattish negative. 

FIIs were net buyers extending their regular routine buying. DIIs are still into selling mode.


FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 14-Mar-2014 3951.442969.25982.19
DII 14-Mar-2014 733.471599.89-866.42

On derivative front FIIs once again offloaded their stock futures taking their offloading streak to 5th day. Nifty future premium remained in the range 30-40 as has been for the last few days. OI decreased marginally by -0.19.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 14-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
51798
1663.78
73050
2342.71
495051
16060.15
INDEX OPTIONS
487205
15410.33
475710
14969.74
1632929
52893.79
STOCK FUTURES
81559
2807.42
100514
3375.41
1070376
34385.82
STOCK OPTIONS
58335
1972.21
58679
2000.25
99502
3142.90

Stock ideas update

JINDALSTEL stopped out during the day but closed 2% higher. If you are holding positions in it, keep holding so, as now after sufficient consolidation, it should move higher.

RENUKA is next big thing building up. Now with support of bullish time band and 15 days consolidation with narrow range, it should move vertically up like LT for many days to come.

Trade update

No positions on hold after stopped out on 13th March 2014.

March 2014 profit

Booked : 25 Nifty points + 776% Option gains


Nifty forecast for 18 Mar 2014

Nifty should move up.

Advice for traders

Trade with longs only. 6434 - 6601 would be range for trading. Nifty should now hit 6627 in this next leg up.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Wednesday, 12 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 13 March 2014 - 12 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 12 Mar 2014

Nifty remained range-bound today with pressure coming from ASIAN markets which kept bleeding like hell. Buying the dip remained good strategy but cracks are visible across the board. Again at higher levels, there is clear divergence with metal shares now in complete bear grip. HINDALCO is on the verge of giving all its gains. TATASTEEL is looking for a sudden vertical fall.

Equity segment saw net buying but difference narrowed down sharply between FIIs and DIIs. 

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 12-Mar-2014 3219.192354.84864.35
DII 12-Mar-2014 654.431476.4-821.97

And in derivative segment FIIs offloaded stock futures again and today all four derivative segments saw net selling. Long position built up is not apparent now, and after technical target is achieved , we might see vertical sudden fall. Nifty future premium remains stagnant at 33 points. 



Total March 2014 derivative turnover
INDEX FUTURES 3674.29
INDEX OPTIONS 3549.92
STOCK FUTURES 1697.22
STOCK OPTIONS -199.83



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
53735
1739.34
1841.59
1813.05
453879
14724.25
INDEX OPTIONS
417332
13276.31
422794
13413.29
1591546
51656.98
STOCK FUTURES
75501
2540.77
86017
2898.10
1045713
33803.71
STOCK OPTIONS
57114
1841.59
58114
1859.72
88521
2817.73

Stock ideas update

JETAIRWAYS rally fizzled out and now no chance of upside. 

JINDALSTEL today just missed stop loss and closed 1.5% higher. 

DENABANK again in selling zone. Exit this stock tomorrow.

HINDALCO now showing enough weakness and who knows it might expire below our early forecast of sub-100 levels. But we also fore-casted Nifty to expire below 6100 in March 2014 series. Once the technical target is hit, then clear picture will emerge for Nifty. 

Trade update

Today again asian markets were bleeding badly. We first exited our longs with some loss , then tried shorting which again got stopped out.

March 2014 profit now remains

Booked : 45 Nifty points + 806% Option gains

Nifty forecast for 13 Mar 2014

Nifty again likely to remain range-bound like today. Tomorrow is last day of our SELLING time band, so we might even see some late upside movement towards end of the day.

Advice for traders

Avoid selling, and instead focus on buying the dip. Take long positions and hold for 14th March 2014 onwards. 
Levels : 6522 - 6473

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Tuesday, 11 March 2014

Nifty forecast analysis for 12 March 2014 - 11 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 11 Mar 2014

Entire day Nifty kept on enjoying buying at lows with making sudden north-wards jerks. Highlight of the day was VIX released some pressure albeit in small amount by around -2.55% despite market fall, and all ATM and OTM PE options closed in red, with some PEs giving positive closing post market closing.

BankNifty closed only 64 points in red and IT index closed flattish , both nearly compensating each other.


Nifty closed -25 points finally today. It traded with flattish to bullish bias for first half, and then slowly kept moving into red. Steel shares like TATASTEEL, JINDALSTEL closed in red. Metal index was the major dragger along with PSU banks. HINDALCO fell 4% giving second red closing in a row. SSLT too closed -3.3% making it 3rd day in a row. 

Metal shares are now showing opposite reaction and PSU banks are also not showing much enthusiasm which was expected from them, which might be due to lack of DII support. This inherent divergence across sectors is not a healthy sign again. Although around 150 shares closed with making new 52 week highs in BSE sensex. 

We are in our bearish TIME band which is visible across the globe and in our markets too with many shares giving deep red closing.


DIIs don't want to waste any opportunity to offload their holdings, and today with slightest 
chance given to them, they offloaded 1331 Cr. FIIs are into strong buying mode and constantly buying with bigger magnitude. Today they bought 1471Cr in equity segment.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 11-Mar-20144406.512935.281471.23
DII 11-Mar-20141050.232381.96-1331.73

And in derivative segment FIIs were buyers in Index F&O and sellers in Stock F&O. They sold stock future second day in  a row which should raise eye brows of traders. When markets are in consolidation phase, big built up of long positions is needed. Nifty futures premium remains  stagnant at 30 points.



March 2014 FII derivative turnover now stands at :

INDEX FUTURES 3748.00
INDEX OPTIONS 3686.90
STOCK FUTURES 2054.56
STOCK OPTIONS -181.70


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 11-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
53463
1731.03
49250
1586.02
451987
14650.68
INDEX OPTIONS
451189
14428.03
436071
13899.92
1564606
50749.54
STOCK FUTURES
116318
3929.46
133924
4517.02
1045035
33904.91
STOCK OPTIONS
83188
2683.54
86453
2816.04
81629
2620.15

Stock ideas update

JETAIRWAYS moved up sharply but couldn't get past its last day's high of 247.05. Now fresh upmove will start only above 247, though we don't think there is something to be afraid of. 

DENABANK closed -1.3% which came as a surprise to us. We were expecting straight session rally. One can keep holding it with higher stop loss of 54.

JINDALSTEL closed -2.5% which too came as a surprise. But metals shares as a whole were down today. Strict stop loss of 250 needs to be maintained in it.

Trade update

JPASSOCIAT call option stopped out @3.05 today giving us a gain of 408%. 
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-6-closed.html

YESBANK call option stopped out @71 today giving us a gain of 343%.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-7-closed.html

Our total booked profit till now in this series is 107 Nifty points and 806% option gains.

We will hold Nifty longs as it is as that is the only position left now.

Nifty forecast for 12 Mar 2014

Nifty is likely to move higher tomorrow towards 6600. A gap down @6470 is a big possibility.

Advice for traders

Buy any flat opening or a gap down near 6470 for target of 6570.

Levels : 6470 - 6525 - 6570 - 6600


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com