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Saturday, 8 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 10 march 2014 - 7 march 2014

Nifty analysis for 7 Mar 2014

It was a day so reminiscent of 2007 September, 2009 May when bulls rejoiced along with all stocks participating in the rally in a big way. After full 4 months , FIIs finally decided to bring breakout. A breakout backed by 2577 Cr equity buying and F&O turnover crossing 7753180 contracts in first week itself of the series. 

Our strategy to buy any flattish first session worked great for us which we described in our 
6th Mar 2014 report under Advice for traders section.

REALTY sector contributed most by 5.62% and IT and PHARMA the least by around -1.80%.
Weak dollar applied breaks on IT pack rally and all IT stocks fell in a big way with INFY and WIPRO closing more than 2% each. WIPRO breakout has turned into a false breakout so far.


FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 07-Mar-20146398.33 3820.89 2577.44
DII 07-Mar-20141678.02 2347.6 -669.58


FII stock future buying continued further, taking their total buying for this month to 2730.98 Cr.
Index futures too saw further buying of 1909.11 Cr. Nifty futures OI increased smartly by 14.58%   with premium slightly reducing to 23 points. 


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 7-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
149670
4776.45
89656
2867.34
422100
13655.87
INDEX OPTIONS
1002348
31512.39
980546
30713.25
1470315
47766.28
STOCK FUTURES
171516
5486.08
128294
4379.74
1017934
32893.19
STOCK OPTIONS
103961
3222.73
105026
3225.36
57799
1838.36

Stock ideas update

We gave buying call for HDIL, JPASSOCIAT, DLF, BHEL on 6th March 2014.
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/03/stock-ideas-with-hdil-jpassociat-dlf.html

And surpassing our expectations all stocks except BHEL hit targets in just 1 day. BHEL is just short of 190 level @184.

Wipro to our surprise took away all its supports one by one in a single day. This shows big weakness in IT index. Stay away from IT stocks , avoid bottom fishing in falling knife.

Trade update

It was quite a day for us too like FIIs.

1. Exited Nifty longs with profit of 83 points.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-5-closed.html

2. JPASSOCIAT call option soared and closed 269% higher @2.50. We revised our stop loss in that. We are not looking at targets, but want to follow it with trailing stops.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-6-update.html

3. YESBANK is soaring and so is its 320 call option and we are in profit of more than 200% in that now. 
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/yesbank-trading-strategy-march-2014.html

4. We took long positions in Nifty @6526 spot. We are not following any target , though it looks like 6990 will be hit in this series. We will follow Nifty with trailing stops.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-8-7-mar.html


Profit summary

March 2014 profit (booked) : 107 Nifty points and 55% option gains.
March 2014 profit (running) : NIFTY(0), JPASSOCIAT(269%), YESBANK(200%)


Nifty forecast for 10 Mar 2014

Nifty is expected to remain range-bound at higher levels with flat closing.

Advice for traders

No point in selling this market, so wait for an intraday dip for taking long positions. 
Levels : 6580 - 6475 - 6450

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com