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Wednesday, 12 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 13 March 2014 - 12 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 12 Mar 2014

Nifty remained range-bound today with pressure coming from ASIAN markets which kept bleeding like hell. Buying the dip remained good strategy but cracks are visible across the board. Again at higher levels, there is clear divergence with metal shares now in complete bear grip. HINDALCO is on the verge of giving all its gains. TATASTEEL is looking for a sudden vertical fall.

Equity segment saw net buying but difference narrowed down sharply between FIIs and DIIs. 

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 12-Mar-2014 3219.192354.84864.35
DII 12-Mar-2014 654.431476.4-821.97

And in derivative segment FIIs offloaded stock futures again and today all four derivative segments saw net selling. Long position built up is not apparent now, and after technical target is achieved , we might see vertical sudden fall. Nifty future premium remains stagnant at 33 points. 



Total March 2014 derivative turnover
INDEX FUTURES 3674.29
INDEX OPTIONS 3549.92
STOCK FUTURES 1697.22
STOCK OPTIONS -199.83



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
53735
1739.34
1841.59
1813.05
453879
14724.25
INDEX OPTIONS
417332
13276.31
422794
13413.29
1591546
51656.98
STOCK FUTURES
75501
2540.77
86017
2898.10
1045713
33803.71
STOCK OPTIONS
57114
1841.59
58114
1859.72
88521
2817.73

Stock ideas update

JETAIRWAYS rally fizzled out and now no chance of upside. 

JINDALSTEL today just missed stop loss and closed 1.5% higher. 

DENABANK again in selling zone. Exit this stock tomorrow.

HINDALCO now showing enough weakness and who knows it might expire below our early forecast of sub-100 levels. But we also fore-casted Nifty to expire below 6100 in March 2014 series. Once the technical target is hit, then clear picture will emerge for Nifty. 

Trade update

Today again asian markets were bleeding badly. We first exited our longs with some loss , then tried shorting which again got stopped out.

March 2014 profit now remains

Booked : 45 Nifty points + 806% Option gains

Nifty forecast for 13 Mar 2014

Nifty again likely to remain range-bound like today. Tomorrow is last day of our SELLING time band, so we might even see some late upside movement towards end of the day.

Advice for traders

Avoid selling, and instead focus on buying the dip. Take long positions and hold for 14th March 2014 onwards. 
Levels : 6522 - 6473

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com