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Saturday, 29 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 31 March 2014 - 28 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 31 Mar 2014

Nifty continues its upside momentum in the new series too. Buying was seen across the board but major buying was seen in PSU Banks and Midcaps. F&O stocks which haven't participated much in March 2014 rally are likely to shine in this series.

BANKNIFTY continued its north-ward journey towards projected target of 13400. 13200-13400 will see BANKNIFTY topping out.

JPASSOCIAT, HDIL, IFCI, VIJAYABANK, ANDHRABANK, DENABANK were few favorites which all moved towards north nicely. 

But highlight of the day was INR which closed at 59.850 in international markets. This is a very healthy sign for BULLS until elections.

But there were certain worrying signs too like no major base shifting took place at higher levels and good amount of selling in Nifty futures was seen. This could be long unwinding rather than short built-up.

Difference between FII and DII is clearly towards FIIs. DII selling is no match against FII buying, so clearly bulls are favorite now until May 2014 elections.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 28-Mar-2014 4323.82960.931362.87
DII 28-Mar-2014 1360.211568.55-208.34

In derivative segment FIIs started with buying stock futures after continuous selling in March 2014 series. Both Index and Stock futures saw nice amount of buying. Nifty futures premium reduced drastically overnight from around 60 to 30. So, there should be good amount of long unwinding along with built up of long positions too in Nifty futures.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
46693
1558.66
37638
1252.42
370865
12404.87
INDEX OPTIONS
272715
8947.28
242748
7920.57
1155446
38634.02
STOCK FUTURES
111167
3883.57
103063
3618.86
1056398
35899.01
STOCK OPTIONS
34852
1126.29
32806
1051.47
19447
682.91

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Nifty forecast for 31 Mar 2014

There should be selling pressure at higher levels dragging Nifty towards 6650.

Advice for traders

If you are a Nifty future trader, then exit longs at any gap-up on 31st March 2014 and wait for a dip, as our setup is telling that Nifty should take a dip before moving higher. Or, you can focus on accumulation strategy too rather than exiting longs outright.
Stock future traders can keep holding longs as stocks which haven't participated in March 2014 should now participate.

Note All verticals are updated for the new series. Check it out.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com