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Tuesday, 4 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 5 Mar 2014 - 4 Mar 2014

Nifty analysis for 4 Mar 2014

Nifty zooms to close 76 points higher making high of 6302 and closing at 6297. This rise came a  bit surprise to use, but thankfully it wasn't a big gap-up, and forget about 6185, even 6200 wasn't hit too. 

Yesterday's data was a bit contrary to yesterday's fall. We thought that after falling upto 6185, Nifty might start its upward journey, but it reversed today itself, after Russian denial of force over Ukraine. 

Today's buying was lead by metals with metal index soared by 3.14%, along with BankNifty. All sectors contributed but IT contribution was muted.

But again today's data is misleading. In equity segment FII buying was abysmal like yesterday, and DII in fact sold off with their year old strategy to sell on rallies. So this rally wasn't big enough to get serious about. 

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 04-Mar-20142528.91 2343.3 185.61
DII 04-Mar-20141087.73 1432.23-344.5

In derivative segment FIIs continued their buying spree. Last 3 days have  seen them buying 908 Cr worth stock futures and 248.99 Cr worth index futures.

Nifty futures premium increased to 33 points, but only 8% OI addition is again not optimistic.

No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES 75538 2348.89 53458 1643.59 319862 9969.37
INDEX OPTIONS 311954 9447.27 289522 8703.12 1161840 36367.24
STOCK FUTURES 80833 2561.35 68758 2241.04 1011271 31072.67
STOCK OPTIONS 34737 1036.93 35582 1059.01 41546 1197.05

Stock ideas update

Hindalco's northward journey continued closing at 113.60. Now our plan for its sub 100 expiry looks shaky, but entire month is left, interesting to see how it behaves. 

TataSteel gained 1.9% closing at 351.75. Yesterday we mentioned that 340 break is needed for its further downfall. Avoid buying steel stocks.

Wipro gains 0.39% and after making high of 594.80 closed at 588.2. Exit longs if 582 is taken out. Buying area remains above 582 only.

ICICIBANK finally gets past 1045 after enough tussle zoomed to make high of 1072.

LT non-stop rally continues and sky remains limit.

Trade update

Asia was fairly strong and Nifty too didn't fall upto 6185, and remains stable above 6226, so we decided to exit shorts.

Importance of 6226 was discussed in yesterday's analysis. And importance of 6172 - 6185 was tweeted yesterday.

During market hours we noticed SGX Nifty was quoting +40 and Nifty was up only +20. 

We got more confident about the rise and decided to go long. As this move was not in our plan, so we decided to go with other factors with very short term view in mind. We will exit tomorrow morning session.

Nifty forecast for 5 Mar 2014

Nifty is likely to find 6315 very strong resistance and must retrace back sharply from there. Area above 6315 is highly unstable for tomorrow. 
We are expecting a razor sharp to-and-fro movement tomorrow with absolute flat closing near open price.
An excellent day for day-trading !

Advice for traders

Sell below 6315 once 6315 is hit and exit at 6289 and buy some stability near bottom for few points.
Levels to use 6315 - 6289 - 6262.

Anjum S Khan