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Wednesday, 5 March 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 6 March 2014 - 5 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 5 Mar 2014

Today was our best day so far in this series. Everything happened as we fore-casted in our last report. Nifty opened gap up went negative and took u turn to close absolute flat. It opened at 6328.45 and closed at 6328.65. Can you believe it ? 

http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-analysis-forecast-for-5-mar-2014.html

Last 2 days have given ample trading opportunities as described in our TIME forecast. Our February-March technical forecast has also been spot on with Nifty rallying from Feb 2014 ending into March 2014.

Today's interesting point was that Nifty Calls' positive closing was negligible. 6400 CE closed negative but it was brought to close positive post closing. 6300+ area is tested and found resistive enough. 

Realty stocks were of some concern. DLF closed 3.5 % higher and rest others like UNITECH, HDIL, HCC took U turn. HDIL and UNITECH took sharp U turn and after narrowly escaping bear zone HDIL can be next YESBANK.

Nifty range now seen as 6350 - 6250 for swing trading.

In equity segment FIIs bought with full zeal and enthusiasm to take their buying above 700Cr mark. DIIs restrained from selling at higher levels which helped Nifty to keep floating higher.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 05-Mar-20143103.41 2366.12 737.29
DII 05-Mar-2014983.98 1185.83 -201.85

Quite a bit of short positions seems to get built up in Nifty futures at higher levels. Nifty futures premium reduced to 19 points at 1:56PM. And at closing too it was only 19 points but post closing it increased to 24 points. OI addition was still abysmal with merely 5.74% addition against yesterday's addition of 8%. 



Index options saw profit taking. Stock futures once again witnessed decent buying. FIIs current month stats now stand at : 
INDEX FUTURES 877.27
INDEX OPTIONS 1487.22
STOCK FUTURES 1278.24
STOCK OPTIONS 109.28


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 5-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
50592
1556.30
30089
928.02
344871
10788.61
INDEX OPTIONS
297128
9011.39
311180
9367.78
1198804
37705.20
STOCK FUTURES
81772
2589.71
68873
2220.11
1023614
31661.62
STOCK OPTIONS
42857
1235.82
42955
1239.15
44252
1300.21

Stock ideas update

Yesbank shot up higher to close at 331.45. Our YESBANK strategy is a hit. 

http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/02/yesbank-trading-strategy-march-2014.html

Hindalco goes beserk. Above 113.65 it will remain in bull's hand. We don't have any position in it. 

Tatasteel is still in bear grip and is expected to remain so in this series. Avoid buying. Focus on selling it.

Wipro remains in consolidation mode without breaking its buying zone of 584.

Sugar stocks were ok with only BALRAMCHIN zooming 3.4% and rest others keeping quite.

Trade update

We exited our 6300 CE with 55% gains and Nifty future longs with 57 points gain.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-2-closed.html

http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-3-closed.html

We have taken fresh short positions at 6317 spot.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-4-5-march.html

Nifty forecast for 6 Mar 2014

Tomorrow Nifty is expected to remain in narrow range for most of the time. Last session weakness might/might-not come. New series highs are unlikely at least for now. Remember we are still in selling time zone as per our forecast.

Advice for traders


Trade with selling in mind. Any lack of confidence at today's high must be sold off.
Levels for trading 6336 - 6300 - 6287.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com