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Monday, 31 March 2014

Nifty April 2014 series analysis forecast for 1 April 2014 - 31 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 31 Mar 2014

Nifty opened with gap up and remained weak throughout the day as was fore-casted in our advice to traders section in previous report. Metal shares were hero of the day with Hindalco surpassing all expectations closing at 141.75 with a gain of 8.3%. Realty index was a near second registering gain of 2.86%. BankNifty closed flat and pressure on Nifty was due to FMCG stocks. ITC closed -1.6%. Technically it has formed a temporary top at 365. So some sideways movement is very likely. 

Highlight of the day was VIX which closed a massive 16% up at 21. Now markets have entered danger zone and big swings are coming in this series.

FII : DII ratio narrowed sharply in contrast to last day's data when FIIs bought 1362Cr against DII selling -208Cr. DIIs are still selling. They might start buying after sharp dip.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 31-Mar-2014 4248.843305.98942.86
DII 31-Mar-2014 1358.081969.3-611.22


At derivative front FIIs were net sellers in all segments except stock futures. Nifty future remains stagnant at 35 points.

FII April 2014 series turnover so far (Cr)
INDEX FUTURES 129.11
INDEX OPTIONS 1015.47
STOCK FUTURES 344.36
STOCK OPTIONS 13.79


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 31-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
45064
1512.68
50400
1689.82
387783
12993.10
INDEX OPTIONS
256572
8380.09
256298
8391.33
1216162
40715.68
STOCK FUTURES
104588
3670.71
100354
3591.06
1058448
36193.48
STOCK OPTIONS
41985
1422.64
43853
1483.67
29485
1030.67

Stock ideas update

Polaris, TataSteel buying recommendation is posted today.
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/03/stock-ideas-polaris-tatasteel-31-march.html

Trade update

UNITECH 17.5 CE was purchased today, 
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nse-april-2014-series-trade-1-31-mar.html

Nifty forecast for 1April 2014

Nifty is likely to remain weak as we are now in high volatility time band.
http://nifty-forecast.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-time-and-technical-forecast-for.html

Advice for traders

If traders would have followed yesterday's advice, they would have made good money. Nifty after gap up opening went down to make low of 6662. 
If Nifty remains weak in first session, wait for closing hour, and then take long position. As there are chances of a red closing.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com