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Tuesday, 11 March 2014

Nifty forecast analysis for 12 March 2014 - 11 March 2014

Nifty analysis for 11 Mar 2014

Entire day Nifty kept on enjoying buying at lows with making sudden north-wards jerks. Highlight of the day was VIX released some pressure albeit in small amount by around -2.55% despite market fall, and all ATM and OTM PE options closed in red, with some PEs giving positive closing post market closing.

BankNifty closed only 64 points in red and IT index closed flattish , both nearly compensating each other.


Nifty closed -25 points finally today. It traded with flattish to bullish bias for first half, and then slowly kept moving into red. Steel shares like TATASTEEL, JINDALSTEL closed in red. Metal index was the major dragger along with PSU banks. HINDALCO fell 4% giving second red closing in a row. SSLT too closed -3.3% making it 3rd day in a row. 

Metal shares are now showing opposite reaction and PSU banks are also not showing much enthusiasm which was expected from them, which might be due to lack of DII support. This inherent divergence across sectors is not a healthy sign again. Although around 150 shares closed with making new 52 week highs in BSE sensex. 

We are in our bearish TIME band which is visible across the globe and in our markets too with many shares giving deep red closing.


DIIs don't want to waste any opportunity to offload their holdings, and today with slightest 
chance given to them, they offloaded 1331 Cr. FIIs are into strong buying mode and constantly buying with bigger magnitude. Today they bought 1471Cr in equity segment.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 11-Mar-20144406.512935.281471.23
DII 11-Mar-20141050.232381.96-1331.73

And in derivative segment FIIs were buyers in Index F&O and sellers in Stock F&O. They sold stock future second day in  a row which should raise eye brows of traders. When markets are in consolidation phase, big built up of long positions is needed. Nifty futures premium remains  stagnant at 30 points.



March 2014 FII derivative turnover now stands at :

INDEX FUTURES 3748.00
INDEX OPTIONS 3686.90
STOCK FUTURES 2054.56
STOCK OPTIONS -181.70


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 11-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
53463
1731.03
49250
1586.02
451987
14650.68
INDEX OPTIONS
451189
14428.03
436071
13899.92
1564606
50749.54
STOCK FUTURES
116318
3929.46
133924
4517.02
1045035
33904.91
STOCK OPTIONS
83188
2683.54
86453
2816.04
81629
2620.15

Stock ideas update

JETAIRWAYS moved up sharply but couldn't get past its last day's high of 247.05. Now fresh upmove will start only above 247, though we don't think there is something to be afraid of. 

DENABANK closed -1.3% which came as a surprise to us. We were expecting straight session rally. One can keep holding it with higher stop loss of 54.

JINDALSTEL closed -2.5% which too came as a surprise. But metals shares as a whole were down today. Strict stop loss of 250 needs to be maintained in it.

Trade update

JPASSOCIAT call option stopped out @3.05 today giving us a gain of 408%. 
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-6-closed.html

YESBANK call option stopped out @71 today giving us a gain of 343%.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-7-closed.html

Our total booked profit till now in this series is 107 Nifty points and 806% option gains.

We will hold Nifty longs as it is as that is the only position left now.

Nifty forecast for 12 Mar 2014

Nifty is likely to move higher tomorrow towards 6600. A gap down @6470 is a big possibility.

Advice for traders

Buy any flat opening or a gap down near 6470 for target of 6570.

Levels : 6470 - 6525 - 6570 - 6600


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com