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Sunday, 2 March 2014

Nifty March 2014 series analysis forecast for 3 March 2014 - 28 Feb 2014

Nifty analysis for 28 Feb 2014

Nifty opened gap down and zoomed 35 points up in a flash hitting 6274. 6269 is highly crucial level for this series. As series progresses, we will see ample movement around this level.

BankNifty didn't contribute much but IT index was used by operators to manipulate. When one index is used and other one lags, this shows trend is hollow and one can bet on reverse movement. 

BankNifty is key. Pressure on banks means something wrong with our economy and this is clearly the case.

Otherwise buying came across the board. Realty sector closed flat, again this negative divergence is of great concern. Interest rate sensitives are showing lack of interest when markets are rising. 

Highlight of the day was sharp reduction in premium of Nifty futures which was 34 on 26th Feb and reduced to 12 points on 28th Feb despite sharp rise in indices. 

Another highlight kept me surprising entire day and it can be described best with our tweet : 



SGX Nifty kept trading in red entire day, something I haven't seen before.

In Equity segment both FIIs and DIIs were net buyers this time. FII buying is stable near 500 Cr mark, and DIIs ended up as net buyers mistakenly. 


FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 28-Feb-2014 6737.216145.39591.82
DII 28-Feb-2014 1334.451322.4312.02

And in derivative segment FIIs sold index futures and bought stock futures. Nifty futures OI is lagging sharply at 13705450 and is at lower end and is likely to pick up as series will progress. Such less OI was last seen in Dec 2013 series. Nifty futures premium stands at mere 12 points. 



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-FEB-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
75514
2346.05
79654
2487.97
293714
9059.37
INDEX OPTIONS
227442
6895.10
209460
6306.49
1051876
32835.05
STOCK FUTURES
110794
3565.12
98512
3132.52
1015127
30913.85
STOCK OPTIONS
40950
1236.28
37609
1144.71
31059
881.40



Stock ideas update

Hindalco kept moving higher and higher and is now approaching our third resistance level. Our eyes are on 100 PE which we want to purchase at dead cheap price. It has already fallen below 2/-.

TataSteel made low of 340.7 and is still looking very weak. 

Wipro took a breather. Just keep an eye on the buying area. It can go higher.

Trade update

We are not holding any position as of now.

Just in case if you haven't went through our strategy for March 2014 series. Go through it : 
http://nifty-strategy.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-strategy-for-march-2014-series.html

Nifty forecast for 3 Mar 2014

Nifty should remain rangebound to weak. Avoid buying.

Advice for traders

Focus on selling only. Selling area remains below 6300 for tomorrow.
Levels for trading 3rd March 2014 would be 6300 - 6240 - 6185.



Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com