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Monday, 3 March 2014

Nifty March 2014 series analysis forecast for 4 March 2014 - 3 Mar 2014

Nifty analysis for 3 Mar 2014

Today was first day of our 1st time band and markets around the world responded in style. 
http://nifty-forecast.tracknifty.com/2014/02/nifty-forecast-for-march-2014-25-feb.html
Weakness started from Asia and creeped into European markets and now US markets are deep red too. Tensions in Ukraine has escalated, with Russia too putting pressure resulting in big jump in Crude Oil.

Every sector fell sharply including Bank-Nifty and IT index. With no buying support from both these sectors, Nifty couldn't be saved and ended -55 at 6221.45 . 

Realty sector was extremely weak with UNITECH closing at day's low at 11 falling 3.5%. Next in line would be HDIL, a sharp fall can start in it any time.

FII buying was abysmal and DII buying increased sharply. This sharp buying by DIIs could be single stock buying, though we are not sure about this.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 3-Mar-2014 2524.182325.65198.53
DII 3-Mar-2014 2717.471151.161566.31

FIIs sold Index futures and bought stock futures. Nifty futures OI reduced further with premium  increased to 18 points. This could be short covering in Nifty futures.



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 3-MAR-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
37633
1144.32
47957
1458.72
292112
8937.08
INDEX OPTIONS
267941
8033.05
251351
7522.20
1102586
34081.16
STOCK FUTURES
79110
2512.83
74802
2357.10
1010572
30511.01
STOCK OPTIONS
39249
1147.82
37983
1104.70
38789
1109.92

Stock ideas update

Hindalco makes high of 107.35 exact against our projected resistance of 108 and retraced back. We will wait for more time and then purchase its 100 PE later on.

TataSteel found some support at last low of 340. Break below 340 is needed now for fresh fall.

Wipro has found some resistance at 600 levels and with IT index bleeding sharply, can fall further. Buying area remains above 581.

Sugar stocks are doing ok and we think that this sector can be a multi-bagger in next 3months.

Trade update

Seeing ample weakness we decided to take a short position and we are in profit of 30 Nifty points after todays closing. 

http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/03/nifty-march-2014-series-trade-1-update.html

Nifty forecast for 4 Mar 2014

Nifty should remain weak again. 6226 would be key level for tomorrow.

Advice for traders

Hold onto your shorts in accordance to yesterday's advice and exit near 6185. 
Avoid buying / selling both once 6185 is hit. 



Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com