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Friday, 9 May 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 12 May 2014 - 9 May 2014

Nifty analysis for 9 MAY 2014

Nifty shot up sharply and registered biggest intraday gain since 2009. Such 200 point up move was last seen in 2009. In August 2013 we saw Nifty falling 200 points, but this time it was an 
upmove. We forecasted yesterday in our forecast section that today Nifty should trade with bullish bias entire day and it happened exactly that. Today markets gave ample chance to take long position. Nifty remained in negative territory in the start of the session.
 Read yesterday's report : 
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/05/nifty-analysis-forecast-for-9-may-2014.html .

We were mentioning that market is terribly oversold and a razor sharp rally is unavoidable, and today it broke records. BankNifty closed with gain of 5% and so was Realty and Finance sector closing 4.82% and 5.20% respectively. All stocks like LT, YESBANK, BHEL, SBIN, DLF, HINDALCO registered extremely good gains of more than 3% each. Metal index which was beaten down heavily registered gain of 3%.

FII buying was clear onesided  and DII shamelessly turned out to be net sellers yet again. Actually they must be very happy to see a rally to offload their holdings to shine their NAVs. Such figures are a treat to watch and gives a feeling that they are representing some T2T segment.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 9-May-2014 4671.343402.561268.78
DII 9-May-2014 1670.161745.46-75.3

In derivative segment FII remained sellers again as they further sold stock futures and their index futures buying didn't enthuse much either. Their addition of sell positions in Index options is not an encouraging sign at all. But interesting thing to note it after Index option figure hitting low of  -25 Cr on 7th May 2014, this time Stock option figure hits a low of 4.80 Cr.


Nifty future premium remained at 29 points and surprisingly OI addition was abysmal to the tune of only 6.65%. 
MAY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -2684.85
INDEX OPTIONS -1924.07
STOCK FUTURES -2251.79
STOCK OPTIONS 4.80


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 9-MAY-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
100674
3423.54
83012
2829.84
301240
10382.49
INDEX OPTIONS
432406
14927.62
465021
16104.26
1882373
64560.52
STOCK FUTURES
112235
3639.17
118102
3794.00
1276318
40090.46
STOCK OPTIONS
38823
1290.27
41842
1409.15
66780
2110.31

Highlight of the day was negligible addition of OI in Nifty futures, rise of 9% in VIX and selling of stock futures by FIIs. All these happening when there was a market rise sharply after showing negative territory in the morning.
Base shifting was seen at 6850 but this can't be termed as a strong base. On a scale of 1-10 we would rate this rise as only 5. The real base shifting was seen on 7th March 2014 when similar rise was seen with our rating of 9/10 . Markets remaining dry and oversold yet again, signalling more sharp rallies coming next week.

Stock ideas update

ICICIBANK achieved its target of 1320 with style. No more stocks to track now.
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/05/icicibank-trading-idea-for-7-may-2014-6.html

Trade update

We kept holding our Nifty longs with increased target of 6920. We are already in profit of around 140 points. 
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/05/nse-nifty-may-2014-series-trade-3_9.html

Our Reliance 1000 CE hits target of 40 with style giving gain of 33%.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/05/nse-nifty-may-2014-series-trade-4.html

Booked profit for May 2014  series : -49 Nifty points, 33% Option gain

Running profit for May 2014 series : 140 Nifty points


Nifty forecast for 12 MAY 2014

Nifty is likely to trade range-bound with bullish bias.

Advice for traders

Those who are holding longs can keep holding their longs with stop loss of 6800, and others can take long positions and hold till 16th May 2014 with stop loss of 6800 without looking at targets. 

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com