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Monday, 12 May 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 13 May 2014 - 12 May 2014

Nifty analysis for 12 MAY 2014

Nifty zoomed like a rocket after opening flat. Many would have expected it to open with gap up, but it opened flat, and then zoomed by 100 points in less than 15 minutes. We forecasted about oversold nature of the markets with expectation of more upside to come, and today market zoomed again by 150 points. Such back to back upmoves were seen in September 2014 and in May 2009. When markets move out of news, then levels and other technicals hardly matters. But still we think 7400 is a logical target now by 16th May 2014.

Energy and Media sectors gained more than 3%. Only pharma sector closed in red and rest all sectors closed in green. Rupee appreciated too but not in line with expectations and remained at 59.95. BankNifty gained 334 points and IT index 83 points.

All major stocks gained more than 2-3% on an average. LT, RELIANCE gained more than 3% each. ITC was hero of the day with a gain of 4% to close at 359.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 12-May-2014 46063388.051217.95
DII 12-May-2014 1939.851847.2992.56

In derivative segment FIIs remained net sellers in all 4 categories. Stock future didn't see any long buildup despite such enthusiasm. Stock options which hit low of 4.80 Cr turnover for this series saw addition of sell positions. So, still situation is shaky, and some surprise after 16th May 2014 is not ruled out. Neither Nifty future, nor stock future is showing any long buildup.


Nifty future premium stands at same old 29 points with OI addition of only 2.98%. Premium remaining same might point towards addition of shorts.
MAY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -2942.89
INDEX OPTIONS -3909.99
STOCK FUTURES -2293.30
STOCK OPTIONS -119.13


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 12-MAY-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
82485
2889.70
89750
3147.74
298755
10531.78
INDEX OPTIONS
385722
13440.91
442345
15426.83
2073454
72730.83
STOCK FUTURES
120123
3918.56
121559
3960.07
1297188
41485.61
STOCK OPTIONS
53771
1792.12
57045
1916.05
80154
2641.94

Highlights of the day were : 1. Metal stocks which showed unexpected weakness. Hindalco, Sail closed in red in fact, and 2. All derivative categories showing negative data. 

Stock ideas update
No stocks to track

Trade update

We exited our long position in Nifty futures at 6920 spot with 260 points gain. And then we didn't enter any position. Paid subscribers have made more than 50% option gains so far, and today we took one fresh position with target of 100% gain. We don't want to give away our gains overnight, so we are cautiously trading on the long side. Plenty of time left in this series, we will get plenty of opportunities.

Booked profit for May 2014  series : 211 Nifty points, 33% Option gain

http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/05/nse-nifty-may-2014-series-trade-3_11.html


Nifty forecast for 13 MAY 2014

Nifty is expected to follow exact same path as today's after all exit polls predicting NDA victory.

Advice for traders

Traders are advised to keep holding their longs if any until 16th May 2014 morning. For tomorrow they can take long position at market open and trade with 50- 70 points stop loss. Hard to think about technical levels and other technicals as market is now news based, so levels don't matter. Only money management matters.
If traders want to trade in stocks, then we suggest going for banking space and capital goods space only. Stay away from realty and metal stocks.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com