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Thursday, 15 May 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 16 May 2014 - 15 May 2014

Nifty analysis for 15 MAY 2014

Nifty today remained range-bound with buying coming in at every dip and selling at every rise. 7100 was the target and operators succeeded in holding it. We expected a closing near day's low but after 3:00 pm a closing was given 40 points above the day low. There was no reason for this manipulation. 

Market was under severe pressure whole day with VIX rising 13.4% to close at 36.7. Now there is a talk about VIX either to fall towards sub 20 levels after results which won't happen. We are of the view that VIX will cross 40-45 surely and will remain stable there for few days. 

Now things are getting interesting, charts showing big bullishness and derivatives analysis showing weakness. So if this weakness won't come now, then will it come in June 2014 ? Or, will market reverse abruptly after 16th May 2014 ? If derivatives too are to come in sync with equity data, then it will consume at least one full series surely, will it be May 2014 series or June 2014 series is the question? If we analyze last election season of May-June 2009, we find that after May 2009 rise, markets corrected in June -  mid July 2009 , and then fresh up-move started.

Today market breadth remained negative through out the day with Midcaps, Smallcaps, Metals, Realty sector remained under pressure. Hindalco after losing more than 2% at a time closed 1.9% down at  138.5. LT closed 1% down, but BHEL, NTPC, RELIANCE, SBIN, YESBANK, PNB all closed in green. BankNifty closed 29 points plus and IT remained flat at -35 points.

FII buying was decent but still a bit less than normal.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 15-May-2014 4821.33886.36934.94
DII 15-May-2014 1705.372090.77-385.40

In derivative segment FIIs again sold stock futures heavily by 1457Cr taking the total to 5312Cr.

Index futures saw some buying of 232Cr on the eve of result day.

Nifty future premium reduced further to only 20 points with OI addition of 5%.
MAY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -1312.10
INDEX OPTIONS -7363.40
STOCK FUTURES -5312.10
STOCK OPTIONS -69.13

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 15-MAY-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
71079
2538.75
64651
2306.71
390702
13954.97
INDEX OPTIONS
465292
16556.77
501828
18119.57
2457160
87511.08
STOCK FUTURES
104503
3471.28
146843
4929.17
1306716
42822.06
STOCK OPTIONS
52841
1823.10
51762
1779.19
97174
3247.03

Highlight of the day

VIX rose 13.4% and when Nifty was 20 points down, PE/CE both were in good plus.
Hindalco fell 2%.

Stock ideas update

No ideas to track

Trade update

We keep holding our UNITECH 27.5 CE, and we took fresh long position in Nifty future with stop loss of 100 points.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/05/nse-nifty-may-2014-series-trade-6-14.html

Nifty forecast for 16 MAY 2014

We are expecting first session to be dominated by bulls.

Advice for traders

Buy any gap-down for some points, as 7100 should be crossed surely at least in the first session. Then if Nifty shows some hesitation, exit and wait for some clarity. Buy only above 7100 strictly. Any break below 7050 should be sold off with stop loss of 7100.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com