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Saturday, 17 May 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 19 May 2014 - 16 May 2014

Nifty analysis for 16 MAY 2014

Nifty zoomed like a rocket after opening 100 points up to make high of 7562 and then kept falling whole day to close at 7203 only 79.85 points higher.  In our strategy blog we mentioned 2 strategies for trading results day : 
http://nifty-strategy.tracknifty.com/2014/05/nifty-strategy-for-election-result-16-may-2014.html
At 10:00 AM both strategies were big hit giving great profit, as day progressed markets kept falling whole day.

Buying came across the board with big buying coming in PSU BANKS (5.76%) and REALTY sector(6.22%). BankNifty closed 4.33% higher at 14853, and IT, PHARMA and FMCG closed around 2% down each. Rupee in international markets closed 1.48% higher at 58.57% . 

LT, YESBANK, SBIN, SSLT all closed more than 3-6% each. DLF closed 6% higher. ITC, TATASTEEL, INFY closed around 3% down each putting pressure on markets.

Big base shifting to 7200 - 7500 for this series with a rating of 9 out of 10.

DII selling was no match for FII's one sided buying of 3634.82 Cr buying. 

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 16-May-2014 11962.318327.493634.82
DII 16-May-2014 3329.163678.48-349.32

In derivative segment FII selling continued across the board taking stock future sell positions to -7691 Cr, and Index future sell positions to -2159 Cr. Index future position is with in limit, but stock future sell position is highest for this year with OI now at 1365301. Interesting to see if this gets reduced considerably on Monday 19th May 2014. Index options sell figure too is highest now. In December 2013 when election results were announced for 4 states, then also index options never showed sell figure. Now that verdict is out, so can we expect this figure to rise to come in net plus for this series ? 


Nifty future saw considerable long build up with premium rising to 40 points and OI increasing 20% in single day.
MAY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -2159.87
INDEX OPTIONS -9425.09
STOCK FUTURES -7691.37
STOCK OPTIONS -73.57

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 16-MAY-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
207808
7720.42
230389
8568.18
391035
14224.32
INDEX OPTIONS
989874
36289.29
1054400
38350.97
2444086
88160.06
STOCK FUTURES
198803
7041.38
271556
9420.65
1365301
45956.33
STOCK OPTIONS
85591
3118.92
85772
3123.37
96147
3332.10

Highlights of the day

ITC, TATASTEEL falling more than 3% each.
VIX falling 33%.
Base shifted for this series to 7200 - 7500.

Stock ideas update

No ideas to track

Trade update

We closed our positions with great profits. 
Our profit for this series now stands at 511 Nifty points and 113% Option gains.
http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/05/tracknifty-may-2014-performance-at.html

Nifty forecast for 19 MAY 2014

Nifty is likely to trade higher.

Advice for traders

Traders can take long position above 7268 for 50 points target with stop loss of 7200. For clear levels and guidance consider our paid subscription without delay.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com