TrackNifty
 
Free Nifty F&O calls for full one year

Monday, 5 May 2014

Nifty analysis forecast for 6 May 2014 - 5 May 2014

Nifty analysis for 5 MAY 2014

Nifty again made an attempt to move up but 6740 proved tough nut to crack. Our calculation that it will move up from early low was correct but we expected 6780 which didn't come. Stocks moved quite nicely. LT, HINDALCO, AXISBANK, ITC, RELIANCE all moved up more than a 1% but pressure came from IT, PHARMA and REALTY stocks. Now it is clear that market is doing time pass and no genuine buying exists.

Highlights of the day were 3.43% rise in VIX when it was expected to cool after yesterday's 8% rise, market refusing to get past 6740 and again giving flat closing, and midcap counters like IFCI, JPINFRATEC, NHPC, GUJNRECOKE falling more than a 1%.

FII buying is now clearly has been gone into cold storage and INSTANEX index which we used to track during April / May 2009 is now a thing of the past. In this pre-election rally we haven't heard about this. DIIs are in their old strategy of offloading at highs.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 5-May-2014 22371957.14279.86
DII 5-May-2014 1065.171289.69-224.52

In derivative segment FIIs again started their selling of stock futures after take a pause of 2-3 days. Their total stock sell figure is now standing at -1244.20 Cr for this series.

Nifty future premium now stands at 36 points.
MAY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -2021.97
INDEX OPTIONS 1472.80
STOCK FUTURES -1244.20
STOCK OPTIONS 178.14



FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 5-MAY-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
47263
1582.98
44595
1496.99
266387
8919.80
INDEX OPTIONS
161599
5393.74
184555
6211.64
1415978
47364.11
STOCK FUTURES
74107
2299.30
81754
2528.02
1241888
37913.59
STOCK OPTIONS
25621
819.77
25753
826.25
47940
1473.49

Stock ideas update

After spending sufficient time, IDFC finally breaks past 110.

Trade update

Today we exited our short position with loss of 14 points and entered long position at 6730.
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/05/nse-nifty-may-2014-series-trade-2-5-may.html

Though our stop loss was hit within 20 minutes for a second, we continue to hold our position.

We looked at target of 6780 but now it looks like we should exit tomorrow with minimal profit and wait for tomorrow's closing.

Nifty forecast for 6 MAY 2014

Nifty is expected to remain exactly similar to today's structure and in the range of 6660 - 6780. 
Tomorrow we might see both 6780 and 6656.
If tomorrow Nifty maintains its same stance as today's, then from 7th May up to 9th May 2014 there will be very very strong selling pressure.

Advice for traders

Try to sell near 6740/6780, as tomorrow 6780 might come. If it comes then sell with stop loss of 6810 for target of 6670.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com