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Monday, 30 June 2014

Nifty analysis for 30th June 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 1 July 2014 - 30 June 2014

  JULY 2014NIFTY FUTURE
(points)
OPTIONS
(percent)
COMMODITIES*
(percent)
STOCKS
(percent)
BOOKED



RUNNING10030

* Commodity profits are converted to their NG equivalents.

Nifty analysis for 30 JUNE 2014


New series kicks off with a bang. We are now in running profit of 100 points in Nifty future and 60% profit in Options for paid clients. Nifty opened 34 points plus and closed 102 points higher after making a high of 7623 at 7611.35. In yesterday's email to paid clients mentioned about bullish forecast and trading levels which worked very well today.



Buying came across the board with every sector participating in the rally from defensives to high beta. Midcaps and PsuBanks lead the rally each closing 3% higher. Every single sectoral index closed in green. BankNifty closed 249 points higher and IT index closed 92 points higher.

Ranbaxy was star performer and closed 3.8% higher. ITC, NTPC, BHEL all closed 1-2% higher, and IDFC closed 5% higher.

FII buying was no match for DII selling and it was one sided bullish day.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 30-June-2014 5228.263940.601288.16
DII 30-June-2014 1644.571825.8-181.23

FIIs remained net sellers in Index and Stock futures yet again indicating cautious bullishness.

Nifty future OI reduced further by 0.56% with premium remaining stagnant at 23 points.

JULY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -334.38
INDEX OPTIONS 1291.19
STOCK FUTURES -1037.62
STOCK OPTIONS 43.90

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 30-JUNE-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
33922
1294.42
42399
1618.65
296113
11311.52
INDEX OPTIONS
173983
6575.43
165749
6303.52
1148975
43728.54
STOCK FUTURES
80783
2993.77
85103
3135.02
1475118
55569.19
STOCK OPTIONS
34791
1305.08
33600
1269.63
46633
1749.01

Stock ideas update

RENUKA remains in buying zone closing 1.5% higher at 27.75.
BHEL too remain in bullish zone closing at 250.3.

Trade update

We exited NG shorts cost to cost and our June month closed with quite handsome gains.

We entered fresh positions for Nifty F&O for July 2014 series and are in running profit of 100 Nifty points and 30% Option gains. Paid clients are holding two different Option positions and are in profit of more than 30% in each.

One can see our trades live in our blog http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/ .

We are gutsy traders and are posting trades regularly month after month in our blog. Can your favorite analyst do that ?

Nifty forecast for 30 JUNE 2014

Emailed to clients

Advice for traders

Emailed to clients




Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Sunday, 29 June 2014

Nifty analysis for 27th June 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 30 June 2014 - 27 June 2014

  JUNE 2014NIFTY FUTURE
(points)
OPTIONS
(percent)
COMMODITIES*
(percent)
STOCKS
(percent)
BOOKED1862684.989.67%
RUNNING



* Commodity profits are converted to their NG equivalents.


Nifty analysis for 27 JUNE 2014

Nifty closed 15.60 points plus at 7506 after making a high of 7538. This time IT, FMCG and PHARMA sectors were used for lifting index higher to give a closing above 7500. Closing below 7500 would bring weakness so market makers are trying every trick in the book to keep index maintain 7500.

In our email to paid clients we mentioned 7530 - 7540 as crucial levels, and today Nifty couldn't cross 7540 and remained subdued forming a base above 7500.



IT stocks were star of the day with TCS zooming 4%, followed by Realty and Pharma stocks. Realty stocks gave very strong recovery later in the day moving from negative to positive territory. RANBAXY closed 4% higher, HDIL 5.5% higher and UNITECH moved from 2% lower to 1.6% higher. 

FII : DII turnover was near equal in opposite directions. 

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 27-June-2014 3780.973598.42182.55
DII 27-June-2014 1422.691595.09-172.4

And in derivative segment FII started with selling both index and stock futures indicating no enthusiasm before budget. 


Nifty future sheds 1.17% OI and closed with 38 points premium.


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 27-JUNE-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
24774
935.56
25059
945.71
296478
11185.22
INDEX OPTIONS
194106
7258.38
164540
6239.11
1076163
40401.06
STOCK FUTURES
63681
2356.45
85467
3252.82
1469018
54110.58
STOCK OPTIONS
27342
1049.64
26824
1041.19
27076
1004.81

Stock ideas update

RENUKA and BHEL both fell more than 2%. Both remains in consolidation mode in range of 31 - 26 and 232 - 255 respectively. BHEL has formed an important pattern as per Elliott wave , and so 275+ levels will come surely and any crackdown below 238 looks  a distant possibility.

Trade update

We sold Natural Gas for July 2014 series and are in profit in it.

And we will take position in Nifty future at market open : 
http://nifty-trade.tracknifty.com/2014/06/nse-nifty-fut-july-2014-series-trade-1.html

Nifty forecast for 30 JUNE 2014

Sent to paid clients

Advice for traders

Sent to paid clients

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Friday, 27 June 2014

June 2014 month performance at a glance

Below is our trading performance for the month of June 2014 in the free segment.

  JUNE 2014NIFTY FUTURE
(points)
OPTIONS
(percent)
COMMODITIES*
(percent)
STOCKS
(percent)
BOOKED1862684.989.67%
RUNNING



* Commodity profits are converted to their NG equivalents.

4.98% of Natural Gas is more than 13  points per lot, which means we have made more than 15K in this series in NG per lot.

All trades are posted in front of every one. Check yourself. 



And in paid segment, we started off very well, but later on 23rd June 2014 onwards, profits got back to zero in both F&O segment. We didn't expect markets to keep contracting its range entire month, instead we were expecting markets to form a base above May 2014 zone and move from there on higher up.

We managed to make very good profits in free segment as markets were good in the start of the series and we stopped trading after making good profit.

We will provide good trading ideas entire July 2014 series in our blog. So make sure you read all our blogs daily and don't miss anything we post including on twitter.

Only we can provide quality ideas for free and publicly. Can you tell any one analyst who gives such ideas for free in front of anyone, series after series ? 

We also won Dukascopy Social Trading competition by finishing up 4th for May 2014 series.

Do you know any indian analyst who won international contests.

Paid clients have taken two positions for July 2014 series. Hurry up ! 

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Thursday, 26 June 2014

Nifty analysis for 26 June 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 27 June 2014 - 26 June 2014

Note : From today onwards, Advice to traders, and Forecast sections will be emailed to paid clients only.

Nifty analysis for 26 JUNE 2014

It seems that market makers are reading this blog daily ! ;)

We predicted using our empirical analysis that Nifty should close +76 points, but it closed 76 points magnitude wise, but with sign changed. It actually closed exact -76 points. We can't fight with market makers daily. 

Nifty opened flat and remained in pressure right from the start and after remaining range-bound between 7550 - 7500 it finally break past 7500 and closed below it. Market breadth which was promising in the start, deteriorated entire day. LT was saving grace and closed 1.4% higher at 1673.

All sectors closed in red except Media(1.84%), Pharma(0.38%), and Auto(0.07%). Energy (-3.33%) and Realty tanked badly(-2.5%). BankNifty closed -187 points and IT index -8 points down. 

OMCs closed in deep red : RELIANCE(-3.7%), ONGC(-5.8%), IOC(-4.5%).

LT, HDFCBANK, BHEL closed in green, while YESBANK, DLF closed in red.

FII selling was no match for DIIs.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 26-June-2014 4465.655067.54-601.89
DII 26-June-2014 2034.671863.75170.92

And in derivative segment FIIs sold stock futures by biggest amount of this series worth 1300Cr while they bought index futures worth only 153Cr.


Nifty July 2014 series premium stands at 41 points with good handsome addition of 30% OI.


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 26-JUNE-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
137416
5190.20
133369
5036.50
302297
11403.17
INDEX OPTIONS
504449
18998.62
488145
18313.21
999369
37446.48
STOCK FUTURES
358090
13063.13
390865
14375.78
1454996
53399.12
STOCK OPTIONS
58711
2272.74
47945
1875.39
7138
255.78

Highlight of the day

OMCs tanked badly.

VIX closed in red falling 3.33%.

Nifty expired below 7500.

Stock ideas update

RENUKA remains in range-bound mode like many other stocks. Keep accumulating it upto 26 - 25.

BHEL remains bullish despite all bearishness. Use trailing stop of 248, and target of 260.

Trade update

We are only trading commodities for this month and have managed to increase our profit in it.
Our commodity profit stands at 3.48%. We convert other commodity profits to their Natural Gas equivalents for uniformity.

Nifty forecast for 27 JUNE 2014

Emailed to paid clients

Advice for traders

Emailed to paid clients

Note : We have identified two good trades one each in Nifty F&O.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Wednesday, 25 June 2014

Nifty view and forecast for June 2014 series expiry day on 26 June 2014

Hi,

Fingers crossed !

Every one is puzzled for tomorrow's expiry day.

Things are highly unclear based on data.

When data fails, our empirical analysis comes to rescue.

Based on our empirical analysis on 26th June 2014 Nifty should close +76 points exactly.

And based on our neural network analysis, it should close positive in line with the current broader trend.

On the eve of expiry day, things haven't turned out for reverse to happen.

So forget downside, only upside for tomorrow.

For more clarity see our advance forecasts which we made month back.

http://nifty-forecast.tracknifty.com/2014/05/Nifty-time-and-technical-forecast-for-June-2014-series.html

http://nifty-forecast.tracknifty.com/2014/06/nifty-time-and-technical-forecast-for.html

Just in case we get any early morning low, buy 7550 / 7600 CE June series for big gains.

We have mentioned 3 levels for trading June 2014 series expiry day in our blog : 
http://nifty-expiry.tracknifty.com/2014/06/nifty-expiry-june-2014-series-forecast_25.html


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com

Tuesday, 24 June 2014

Nifty analysis for 24 June 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 25 June 2014 - 24 June 2014

Note From July 2014 series, advice for traders information will be sent to paid clients by email, and won't be discussed publicly. One can check its effectiveness by seeing previous daily reports.

Nifty analysis for 24 JUNE 2014

Sometimes you feel proud by being getting fooled by skilled magicians. Same was the case today. It has happened many times earlier too. If you are a regular reader of our blogs, then many times when we expected markets to move sharply either way, it first gives false signals and then just another day it goes in our predicted direction.

In our analysis report for 20th June 2014 http://blog.tracknifty.com/2014/06/nifty-analysis-for-20-june-2014-and-nifty-view-forecast-for-22-june-2014.html we mentioned in our forecast section that markets should close 70 points plus. But sucking operators on 23rd June 2014 shuffled things upside down. And when you are dealing with paid clients, then you have to live under pressure every time, and some times closing a position is good with some minor loss.

In our expiry forecast http://nifty-expiry.tracknifty.com/2014/06/nifty-expiry-june-2014-series-forecast.html we mentioned about likely expiry target on 18th itself. And this has happened many times in the past that what we foresee in advance, things finally settles down on predicted lines after giving some false data.

Anyway, now coming down to today's analysis. In our yesterday's report we mentioned about selling area below 7480, and not to sell above it. Today Nifty opened at 7515 and keeps going higher and higher with buying support coming from all sectors. PSU Banks and Realty sector contributed most by 2.41% and 3.05% respectively while Media and Pharma closed marginally red.

LT, YESBANK, DLF, UNITECH, SBIN all moved up with slow buildup.

BankNifty closed 233 points higher while IT index closed 22 points plus.

FII : DII turnover remained average.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 24-June-2014 3817.743533.13284.61
DII 24-June-2014 1550.521766.69-216.17

And in derivative segment FIIs bought index futures worth 623 Cr and sold stock futures worth 279 Cr. Nifty July 2014 futures saw massive 89.55% increase in OI indicating big long positions building up.



JUNE 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -2206.68
INDEX OPTIONS 8284.93
STOCK FUTURES 1477.19
STOCK OPTIONS -812.15

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 24-JUNE-2014
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
213021
8105.34
196734
7481.77
423900
16152.56
INDEX OPTIONS
461192
17441.77
452737
17110.95
1923843
72952.26
STOCK FUTURES
411714
15190.86
419284
15470.40
1627467
59924.01
STOCK OPTIONS
65220
2503.63
69545
2662.60
117969
4433.46

Highlight of the day

IT index was once 0.40% down, then closed 22 points higher.
Nifty was once more than 90 points higher, then gave away 50 points in less than an hour, and finally closed 86 points higher. 

Stock ideas update

RENUKA inches up making high of 31 and closing at 29.75. Next up-leg will start over 32.
BHEL closes 2% higher back to back and crosses 250 mark. Charts are looking good and more upside coming in it.

Nifty forecast for 25 JUNE 2014

Nifty is likely to move further up.

Advice for traders

Take long positions for target of 7630. Accumulation zone exists upto 7550.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com