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Monday, 28 July 2014

Nifty analysis for 28 July 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 30 July 2014 - 28 July 2014

Hi,

Nifty closed 41.75 points down at 7748.70. In our last report we mentioned about importance of 7790. And today Nifty spent full 1 hours testing 7790 but it couldn't get past 7790 and we mentioned to sell strongly any stability below 7790 very strongly. Nifty made low of 7722.65 and closed at 7748.70. In our forecast we mentioned about Nifty trading in narrow range which it actually did for 1 hour when it finally gave up. 

Now as long as it will remain below 7790, it will attract selling and 7667 is on cards.

If you looked at derivatives data for different time frames, 3 day and 1 day were telling about range-bound movements, Nifty despite falling more than 60 points at one time remained perfect range-bound in the opening session and in the closing session.


Advance549Decline996Unchanged56


Cash market turnover
Traded Volume (shares in lakh)Traded Value (Rs crores)
7078.7213342.45


FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII28-July-20142919.42844.3675.04
DII28-July-20141388.941333.0355.91


Nifty future premium : -5 (disc)


Daily  Index and Stock futures trend


5 DAY (22 - 28 JULY 2014)
INDEX FUTURE1172.28CRBULLISH
STOCK FUTURE1531.46CRBULLISH

3 DAY (24 - 28 JULY 2014)
INDEX FUTURE-80.70CRRANGEBOUND
STOCK FUTURE181.50CRRANGEBOUND

1 DAY (28 JULY 2014)
INDEX FUTURE32.03CRRANGEBOUND
STOCK FUTURE-57.74CRRANGEBOUND

JULY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -196.38
INDEX OPTIONS 2440.19
STOCK FUTURES 3851.79
STOCK OPTIONS -337.30

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 28-JULY-2014
BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
143386
5558.70
142606
5526.66
426898
16510.98
INDEX OPTIONS
436301
16814.19
442002
17025.42
1851889
71636.61
STOCK FUTURES
394918
14321.72
396174
14379.46
1533971
54952.86
STOCK OPTIONS67803
2620.30
70422
2737.25
120301
4445.73


There is definite improvement in ADV:DEC ratio as compared to last day, and volumes were less too, indicating less selling which is reflected in FII:DII turnover ratio. FII derivatives trend is also giving mixed signals. If we combine both cash and derivative market turnover along with our technical study, we can conclude that markets will remain range-bound to bearish on 30th July 2014.

Nifty forecast for 30 JULY 2014

Nifty should trade with bearish trend below 7750 for target of 7700 - 7667. Range-bound trend at lows should be seen. A narrow range bearish day is possible too as this was what we predicted for today and markets are notorious in doing what we forecast the day after.


Advice for traders


Avoid buying, and sell below 7750 only.

Note : New series is starting, and as always we make great money in the start of the series. So, don't waste time and join fast.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com