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Wednesday, 30 July 2014

Nifty analysis for 30 July 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 31 July 2014 - 30 July 2014

Hi,

Finally we are on the eve of July 2014 expiry. BankNifty zoomed unexpectedly 240 points out of nowhere giving much needed lift to markets. In our previous report we expected two things, one that Nifty will remain weak and another that it will trade in narrow range. Today it traded in narrow range until 12:30 pm and fell there after. We mentioned the importance of 7750 and Nifty remained weak below 7750 and made low of 7707 today.



Mixed signals which markets were giving yesterday mentioned in our last report kept traders guessing and it turned out to be a good day for bulls and bears.

Now today ADV:DEC ratio was fully balanced with declining shares filling up their loss in late session buying.

Advance743Decline795Unchanged72


Cash market turnover increased by over 25%. 
Cash market turnover
Traded Volume (shares in lakh)Traded Value (Rs crores)
8417.0118465.02

FII:DII ratio remained sluggish and it seems like DII mistakenly bought today. FII remained sellers today.

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII30-July-20146133.666515.32-381.66
DII30-July-20142453.021937.37515.65



Nifty future premium : -3 (disc)


Nifty future is trading with minor discount for more than last 5 days.
Daily  Index and Stock futures trend

5 DAY (23 - 30 JULY 2014)
INDEX FUTURE610.36CRBULLISH
STOCK FUTURE433.29CRBULLISH

3 DAY (25 - 30 JULY 2014)
INDEX FUTURE639.45CRBULLISH
STOCK FUTURE-371.73CRBEARISH

1 DAY (30 JULY 2014)
INDEX FUTURE638.69CRBULLISH
STOCK FUTURE-373.23CRBEARISH

JULY 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES 442.31
INDEX OPTIONS 2909.24
STOCK FUTURES 3478.56
STOCK OPTIONS -576.58

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 30-JULY-2014
BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
204827
7946.98
188602
7308.29
477115
18602.21
INDEX OPTIONS
540162
20781.03
527053
20311.97
1905470
74173.67
STOCK FUTURES
462003
16823.56
472610
17196.78
1584764
57278.34
STOCK OPTIONS
81924
3034.21
87435
3273.49
121906
4534.44

FII derivative data is clearly showing bullishness in index futures and bearishness in stock futures. So, there is clear divergence in both these data. So, lack of direction is very much likely tomorrow. So, both bullishness and bearishness should be short lived tomorrow.

Nifty forecast for 31 JULY 2014

Nifty should trade both sides ie; it should be range-bound with wild swings.


Advice for traders


1. Avoid trading.
2. 7750 is hard rock and should hold ground, so try to buy near it with 20 points  stop loss. 
3. 7830 should be big resistance, so try to sell near it with 20 points stop loss.
Note : New series is starting, and as always we make great money in the start of the series. So, don't waste time and join fast.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com