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Monday, 4 August 2014

Nifty analysis for 4 Aug 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 5 Aug 2014 - 4 Aug 2014

Hi,

On the eve of RBI policy day, Nifty after many sharp pullbacks finally zoomed up after news of Portuguese bank bailout. In our last report we mentioned about flat closing expectation. Today it remained in tight range of 20 points for 3 hours.

 

Market breadth was extremely good with every single sector except Pharma(-19.45) closed in green.

Cash market interpretation
ADV:DEC ratio was clear one sided towards advance.

Advance1064Decline473Unchanged66

Cash market turnover declined by over 18%, so it was low volume up day without conviction. Yesterday it was low volume down day. Cash market declining turnover indicating lack of conviction on both down and up days. So, don't trade with over confidence either side.

Cash market turnover
Traded Volume (shares in lakh)Traded Value (Rs crores)
728615,101.60

FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII4-August-20144196.863824.3372.56
DII4-August-20141384.141634.94-250.80

FII : DII turnover too failed to impress, so today's bounce can be labelled as normal corrective bounce in continuation to Friday's(1Aug) fall.

Derivative data interpretation ( FII only )

Nifty future premium : 35, OI : 1,27,49,700 (+2%), Indication: Long

Daily Index and Stock futures trend

1 DAY (4 AUG 2014)
INDEX FUTURE289.51CRRANGE-BOUND
STOCK FUTURE108.17CRRANGE-BOUND

AUG 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -856.21
INDEX OPTIONS 2775.97
STOCK FUTURES 1247.81
STOCK OPTIONS 251.20


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 4-AUG-2014
BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
47810
1836.47
40318
1546.96
258593
9970.64
INDEX OPTIONS
238349
9115.40
246177
9389.61
1238625
47575.41
STOCK FUTURES
71761
2641.84
50694
1912.78
1375022
49640.86
STOCK OPTIONS
42153
1560.86
39356
1452.69
44947
1604.10


FII derivative data is now showing range-bound nature in index futures and bullishness in stock futures. So, there is clear divergence in both these data. So, lack of direction is very much likely yet again. This is also evident with our cash market interpretation.

Nifty forecast for 5 AUG 2014

Nifty should trade with downward bias giving up its today's gains. A red closing is expected. We are expecting -120 points low/closing.

Advice for traders

1. 7715 very big resistance.
2. Try to sell near it with 20 points  stop loss. 
3. Targets for paid clients.
4. Clear selling area exists only below 7660.

Note : New series has started, and as always we make great money in the start of the series. So, don't waste time and join fast.

Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com