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Wednesday, 6 August 2014

Nifty analysis for 6 Aug 2014 and Nifty view forecast for 7 Aug 2014 - 6 Aug 2014

Hi,

In our last report for 5 Aug 2014 we mentioned about 120 points fall in Nifty, but it fell sharply after RBI policy and then recovered smartly to close +60. But today's fall of 80 points confirmed our view of 120 point weakness. 

Cash market interpretation

ADV:DEC ratio pointed nowhere. In morning session it was clearly one-sided but later on stocks cracked in a big way.


Advance763Decline802Unchanged73


Cash market turnover declined marginally, so it was again a down day without much conviction. There is irregularity in daily data. We mentioned in our last reports that Aug will see markets correcting but will keep traders guessing with wild up/down days.


Cash market turnover
Traded Volume (shares in lakh)Traded Value (Rs crores)
811415,650.28


FII trading activity on NSE,BSE and MCX-SX in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII6-August-20144052.293768.42283.87
DII6-August-20141148.741116.1532.59

FII : DII turnover was weak bullish.


Derivative data interpretation ( FII only )

Nifty future premium : 19, OI : 1,37,30,150 (+4.62%), Indication: Short

Daily Index and Stock futures trend

3 DAY (4 - 6 AUG 2014)
INDEX FUTURE-525.06CR26,696SELL
STOCK FUTURE-82.42CR-1114RANGE-BOUND

1 DAY (6 AUG 2014)
INDEX FUTURE-323.68CR25,840SELL
STOCK FUTURE-190.58CR-3712RANGE-BOUND

AUG 2014 SERIES TURNOVER ( Cr )
INDEX FUTURES -1381.24
INDEX OPTIONS 4090.66
STOCK FUTURES 1165.38
STOCK OPTIONS 316.32


FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 5-AUG-2014
BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES41018
1582.97
49494
1906.65
285289
10947.39
INDEX OPTIONS290719
11111.47
273212
10462.50
1301204
49879.33
STOCK FUTURES64320
2368.38
66978
2558.96
1373908
49278.05
STOCK OPTIONS43795
1659.27
42695
1609.06
59178
2107.22



FII derivative data is now showing sell nature in index futures and long-unwinding in stock futures. So, there is clear trend towards sell side in both these data. Nifty future premium has reduced drastically from +30 to mere +19, with increase in OI. Market is now sell on rise. But again, it will be tricky month.

Nifty forecast for 7 AUG 2014

Nifty should trade sideways with downward bias. A red closing is expected.

Advice for traders

1. Selling area is below 7705 only. 

2. Focus on selling only.


Anjum S Khan
admin@tracknifty.com
Admin/Analyst
TrackNifty.com