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Thursday, 27 August 2015

Nifty analysis for 27 Aug 2015 and forecast for 28 Aug 2015 - 27 Aug 2015


Nifty at last zoomed past 7882 and expired at 7948. In our time forecast we mentioned about bullishness in the markets from 27 - 30 Aug 2015. And today was just trailer. More bullishness is coming tomorrow. 

Short covering spree is wreaking havoc among the bears and this is likely to continue tomorrow as well.

FII remained net sellers yet again as they have been for the last 5 days. The magnitude of FII selling is mind blowing and DIIs are no match for their selling. Data is not suggesting the bounce is genuine fresh buying. It still looks like short covering rally.

Metal stocks are the most beaten out ones so metal sector is going to be the winner in this rally. 

Our empirical closing forecast for tomorrow is coming out to be staggering 8209 - 8265. 

Trading advice

1. Buy Realty / Metal stocks at opening bell. 

Aug 2015 series performance

1. 482 Nifty points.

2. 0.2 % average return out of 6 trades

3. 26.5% average return out of 2 stock option trades

4. 32% average return out of 2 nifty option trades

Anjum S Khan

Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Nifty analysis for 25 Aug 2015 and forecast for 26 Aug 2015 - 25 Aug 2015


In our last report we mentioned about buying coming at lows, and today it happened just that. Nifty made first session low of 7667 and zoomed in no time. It found enough resistance at 7882 entire day and if you followed our strategy to sell near 7882, you must have made good money.

Today FII continued their selling spree in cash segment but were strong buyers in derivative segment. World markets too are very supportive to go long. Almost all stocks zoomed sharply probably due to short covering as expiry is only 2 days away. This short covering is likely to continue and should take Nifty towards 8000.

We are expecting Nifty to hit 8043 tomorrow.

Trading advice

1. Buy any normal opening with stop loss below 7880 for target of 8000.

2. Buying area is only above 7882 spot.

Anjum S Khan

Monday, 24 August 2015

Nifty analysis for 24 Aug 2015 and forecast for 25 Aug 2015 - 24 Aug 2015


Nifty has gone past every one's expectation, and fell more than 5% to close at 7800. We didn't expect markets to fall sharply to such an extent. But as markets were moving according to our time forecast, and 24th Aug was to be a bearish day, so we didn't try our heroics and remained in short side and made good money. 

Time forecast is turning out to be good weapon in our trading arsenal. Sticking alone to Time forecast can be devastating, but when we combine with our trading setup, then it becomes an indispensable tool.

Markets now will remain in strong buying pressure at lower levels, as we are approaching expiry, and shorters are making a killer profit. One big Short covering is not ruled out and we are also now out of bearish time band. 

Trading strategy for 25th Aug 2015

1. Sell any rise towards 7882.
2. Buy any low in morning session downward momentum before europe opens.

Anjum S Khan

Saturday, 22 August 2015

Nifty analysis for 21 Aug 2015 and forecast for 24 Aug 2015 - 21 Aug 2015


We have finished with more than 400 Nifty points in this series. Our Option calls remained just perfect to bring good gains. VOLTAS call was fantastic, though we exited with 70% gains, but it went onto giving 200% gains with 290 PE making high of 9.90.
In our forecast report for August 2015 series we mentioned clearly about bearishness from 21-24 Aug 2015. 21 Aug 2015 saw massive sell off around the globe, and with DOW Jones closing with more than 500 points loss, 24 Aug 2015 should see again a big gap-down in Indian bourses. 

Now we are entering the expiry week of August 2015 series, and markets are into big crackdown mode. So it will be interesting to see the expiry pressure trying hands with bearish breakdown. Who will win ? 

We are expecting markets to witness sharp pullback from lows on 24th Aug 2015, exactly as we saw on 21st Aug 2015. 

25th Aug 2015 should be a bullish day with lots of short-covering and profit booking in PEs should bring Nifty near 8400.

Expect Nifty to remain range-bound between 8150 - 8400 in the expiry week with expiry coming just around 8400.

Trading advice

1. Buy low with 50-70 point stop loss on 24th Aug 2015.

Anjum S Khan

Friday, 21 August 2015

August 2015 series performance - 21 Aug 2015

August Series performance

Nifty points : 482

Stock investing : 0.2 % (average) of 6 trades

Option trading :  

1. Stock options : 26.5% average return out of 2 option trades

2. Nifty options : 32% average return  out of 2 nifty option trades


Paid clients made more than 30K profit in this series in INFY and Nifty.

Anjum S Khan

Saturday, 15 August 2015

Nifty analysis for 14 Aug 2015 and forecast for 17 Aug 2015 - 14 Aug 2015


In our forecast report we mentioned about 14th Aug being the bullish date, and Nifty zoomed 160 points on last trading day nullifying Chinese Yuan Devaluation. Now that it has completely covered its losses after china news, how it will behave looks interesting. BANKS which are under buying pressure since start of the series zoomed 4% on an average. Turnover remained sluggish with FII and DII both remaining net buyers.

Nifty is constantly making lower highs since its all time high of 9100 made in March 2015. Now markets are moving sideways. With 8600 failing two times, all eyes are on for 8600. 

We are expecting Nifty to remain in the range of 8575 - 8500 in the start of the week. And lot more would depend upon how global factors unfold themselves.

Traders are advised to consider short positions near 8600.

Anjum S Khan

Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Nifty analysis for 12 Aug 2015 and forecast for 13 July 2015 - 12 Aug 2015


Devaluation of chinese YUAN took the toll of whole gamut of stock markets around the globe.

Nifty today breaks 8400 for the first time in this expiry and closed at 8349.
FIIs were in full flow with their selling spree and sell a staggering 1880Cr and DIIs couldn't provide enough buying to hold them. Yesterday FII sold some 700Cr and today 1880Cr. 
All sectors except IT and PHARMA took the beating with Metal stocks being massacred brutally with HINDALCO, VEDL hitting fresh 52week low.

INFY on the back of good results marched strongly towards its high of 1140 made on the results day (21st July 2015).

Now Nifty is at its very strong support of 8350 for this series. And any slightest support from global peers will bring some 70 points short covering very easily. 

We are of the view that Nifty will witness a bounce back towards 8450 in next 2 days, if there aren't some new surprises which are beyond our control.

Trading advice

1. Buy any gap down.

2. SBIN, BHARTIARTL, RELINFRA, TATAMOTORS should be strong buying candidates tomorrow.

Anjum S Khan